2025 NFL: WEEK 2 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
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2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 9
LOSSES — 6
PUSH — 0
NET WIN/LOSS — + $240
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-6-0 (+$240)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,240.
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[ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE]
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 2:
WASHINGTON at GREEN BAY (THURS.)
The Packers get to play the another Super Bowl contender at home just four days after they dominated NFC North division rival Detroit, last Sunday. On short rest, Green Bay hosts Washington, which won easily — though their victory was a comparatively uninspired effort in Week 1 against the dismal NY Giants. Both favorites won and easily covered. Both games fell well short of the total, cashing as UNDERs. For Thursday, consensus spreads show the Packers as -3.5 point favorites, with the betting total at 49.
Both defenses were dominant, though Green Bay faced the far tougher test, last week. The Packers shut down arguably the NFL’s best offense, while the Commanders did much the same versus one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Still, both units deserve credit, though it’s advantage to Green Bay which lived up to all the preseason hype regarding defensive improvement. Tonight, this does seem like a lot of points considering 11 UNDERs cashed in the first week, combined with the way these defenses looked. Note that last season, it was 9-6 to the OVER in Thurs. night games, which is a minor concern.
As for betting movement, there was a mid-week uptick on the game total, from the opener at 48 to 49 (current). That’s a significant move, which will compel me to play the UNDER. Note: It’s important to catch 49 here. As previously mentioned, both defenses looked fantastic last week. Superstar DE M. Parsons was hobbled but now should be close to 100 percent according to reports — which means Green Bay’s defense becomes even more formidable.
The Commanders were an exciting, high-scoring team last season — 13-7 to the OVER and exceeding the total by nearly a 7 point average. However, Washington put up only 21 points last week in a run-heavy display that ground down the clock with 220 yards on 32 carries versus only 30 pass attempts. To be accurate, Washington didn’t have to throw the ball to beat a bad NYG team. However, we can probably expect a similar 50-50 run/pass distribution given they enjoyed great success on the ground. I think this plays into an UNDER.
The Packers put up only 266 yards on offense in their easy win last week. QB J. Love posted just 22 passing attempts, which is about as low a number as you’ll ever see in today’s NFL. One expects they’ll have to throw the ball more in this game. Still, the early indications favor a balanced offensive attack which should be good for long, time-consuming drives.
The first-half total is right on 24, which rates as a pass. I was hoping to catch 24.5 and then bet UNDER, but that number appears to not be available. Since we are catching a push on the 49 for the full game, and this number could be jaded a bit by Washington’s last-season numbers, combined with two strong defensive performances, and rush-heavy offenses, I think there’s enough reasons to wager on the UNDER in Thursday night’s game.
Wager:
WAS-GB UNDER 49
Note: This page (click the link below) will be updated continuously through Saturday night with more write-ups and picks.
http://betcoin.ag/blog/nolan-expert-picks-week2
THIS WEEK’S OFFICIAL PICKS:
Washington-Green Bay UNDER 49 points–full game total
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (even) vs. Minnesota
Player Prop: ATL RB Allgeier OVER 23.5 rushing yards
Cleveland +12.5 vs. Baltimore
Miami -1.5 vs. New England
Player Prop: LAR RB Williams OVER 72.5 rushing yards
LA Rams -5.5 vs. Tennessee
Player Prop: CHI WR Odunze OVER 4.5 receptions (+120)
Seattle +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh (-120)
Player Prop: SEA RB Walker OVER 1.5 receptions (-155)
Player Prop: BUF QB Allen OVER 233.5 passing yards (-115)
Dallas -5.5 vs. NY Giants
NYG/DAL Prop — Will both kickers make 33 yards or longer FGs–YES (-130)
Arizona -6.5 vs. Carolina
Jacksonville / Cincinnati OVER 49 points–full game total
Houston -2.5 vs Tampa Bay