2025 NFL: WEEK 17 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 143
LOSSES — 113
PUSH — 7
NET WIN/LOSS — +$1,610
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 9-4-1 (+$520)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $11,610.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
LAR-SEA: Full-Game Line — Seattle +1 vs. LA Rams…W
LAR-SEA: Full-Game Total — UNDER 44.5…L
NYJ-NOR: Full-Game Side — New Orleans -4.5 (-115)…W
NYJ-NOR — Player Prop — NOR QB Shough OVER 21.5 rushing yards (-115)…L
KC-TEN: Full-Game Line — Tennessee +3 (-105)…W
KC-TEN: First- Half Line — Tennessee +1 (-105)…W
LAC-DAL: Full-Game Line – LA Chargers +2…W
LAC-DAL: First-Quarter Moneyline – LA Chargers (+105)…P
LAC-DAL: Player Prop – Both Teams OVER 3.5 field goals (-110)…L
CIN-MIA: Full-Game Line — Cincinnati -4…W
ATL-ARZ: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 251.5 passing yards…L
NWE-BAL: Full-Game Line — New England +3 (-115)…W
NWE-BAL: First-Half Line — New England +1.5…W
LV-HOU: Player Prop — HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 2.5 FGs (+165)…W
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ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 17:
DALLAS vs, WASHINGTON (THUR.)
Full-Game Side – Washington +8.5
Full-Game Total – UNDER 51
Player Prop – WAS WR McLaurin OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
Once upon a time, this first of three Christmas Day match-ups looked like a possible “game of the year” candidate, back when the NFL schedule first came out. Now, it’s an insignificant exhibition to be played inside a half-empty stadium—–interesting only to bettors and players incentivized in contracts to pack in some stats padding. Perhaps this plays into a few possible wagers.
Initially, I liked Dallas -6.5 (early line). Now, the number has rocketed up to -8.5 (as of Wednesday afternoon). Given that major line shift, Washington might be the right side of any serious betting here. Markets may be overreacting to Dallas’ admittedly excellent offense, which overall ranks near the top of most categories. However, how much real motivation will the Cowboys bring into this late-season meaningless road game, especially on such a ridiculously short rest? Recall, the Cowboys played last Sunday, then had Monday off, must travel, and they get the earliest possible start on Christmas Day. That’s a tough haul for any team. I don’t see where the preparation comes in. I wouldn’t cap this game the same way you might look at an earlier-season game, or on a regular week-to-week schedule. Add the holiday, which is probably another distraction this time of year, and dogs with points might be the way to bark if we want to chase the bone.
The Cowboys lost three straight, looking worse each and every week. The fact this “great” offense mustered just 17 points at home last week should be a warning about laying such a high number on the road in a division game, particularly with no rest, nor incentives. Washington has been equally, perhaps even more disappointing this season. But toss out the inexplicable 31-0 loss to Minnesota just a few weeks ago, and Washington has played tough in 4 of their last 5 games (nearly beating Denver, and giving Philadelphia a tough time, as well). Journeyman backup QB Josh Johnsnon will start for the Commanders. While his W-L record is dismal (mostly playing on really bad teams), he’s also a 15-year veteran, so he’s been around the league for a while and won’t be new to the surroundings. Probably a last-chance here for a 39-year-old QB. Having no pressure also helps his prospects.
At O/U 51, this total looks too high. A third-string QB for Washington and a Cowboys’ offense that might not be in regular mode could produce a lackluster effort and lower final score. “51” means both teams need to find the end zone multiple times, and it’s always possible one of these teams stumbles. Even though both defenses have been awful against the pass all season long, this O/U total appears to be about where it would be if healthy and in-contention Dallas and Washington were playing each other. That’s not the case here. Little or no adjustment seems to have been made. So, UNDER 51 looks like a good bet.
Most WR player props on receiving yards should be looked at as contrarian opportunities, especially on the Dallas side of the ball. We see multiple Cowboys players with high totals, but one player on the opposing team looks to be not getting enough attention. The move from QB Mariota (injured) to Johnson isn’t likely to be much of a downgrade, and he faces a porous Dallas secondary. One target, WR Terry McLaurin has surpassed 48 yards in 7 of his last eight games, including 53+ on five occasions. I see his O/U yardage is now bet up to 51.5, which still offers value. Assuming the game line is an accurate reflection on the Commanders expected to play from behind, that favors more passing and decent receiving yardage production, especially against the NFL’s worst pass defense (Cowboys – 257 YPG allowed).
Summation: Dog, UNDER, and McLaurin to get some receiving yards.
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA (THUR.)
Player Prop – MIN QB Brosmer to throw an interception–YES (-155)
Biggest news in the last 24 hours was the announcement that MIN QB J.J. McCarthy is out for Thursday’s game. Hard to believe his injury would matter much to the line, but the Vikings went from +6.5 to +7.5 based on Max Brosmer being plucked from the bench.
Detroit looks impossible to handicap right now. Even when they’re good, loaded, and healthy, Lions games have been goofy, at times. Now, they have almost no shot at the postseason and come off a shocking home upset against Pittsburgh. Here, they go into a division rival, demoralized, in a short week. Minnesota sure is tempting with those juicy points, but do we really want to lay down cash on Brosmer, an undrafted rookie in just his second career start? He completed 19 of 30 passes for 126 yards but suffered a team-killing 4 interceptions in his only previous showing.
What could matter most here is Minnesota’s decent defense, which continues to play above average. Add Detroit’s disappearing rushing attack, and that may very well keep Minnesota close in this game. Lions cannot run the ball (their best rushing performance was 60 yards since Week 12). It’s very tempting to take the Vikings plus the points based on this factor alone, especially with the line crossing the 7.
Where value appears to undoubtedly exist is the interception prop on Brosmer. He’s going to have to throw the ball, especially against a team like Detroit. The prop on the YES to at least one interception is priced at -155. That’s a fair number on any unproven QB on a team that’s expected to be playing catch-up and will most likely air it out 30+ times. His FOUR pick game in his only previous start is certainly strong evidence that he’ll toss at least one more this week. Bettors who really seek value may want to even look at OVER 1.5 interceptions, which pays the handsome price of +200. But I’ll play this one on the conservative side and take it for one ball to end up in the jersey of a Lion.
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY (THUR.)
Full-Game Side – Denver -13.5
Has anyone ever seen any Kansas City home game in the modern era with the Chiefs’ projected team total at 10.5? Wow. That’s about as low an NFL total as you’ll ever see. The O/U at 36.5 is also insanely low.
No doubt, non-playoff bound Kansas City has taken the rest of the 2025 season off. Worse, the team just announced they’re leaving Arrowhead Stadium (after 2030), abandoning arguably the best home-field advantage in the league for a dome and rubber grass airport mall over in Kansas (a terrible decision competition-wise, I predict that will backfire in the same way moving into a dome ruined the Vikings 45 years ago). But that’s another discussion for later.
What matters this week is – Denver is playing for the AFC’s top seed and is also coming off a humbling loss (to JAX last week). That’s a perfect scenario for added motivation this week, facing an outclassed, demoralized division opponent. We saw Kansas City has given up, proven in that 26-9 ass-kicking loss to the Titans, which might be the NFL’s worst team. On both sides of the ball, and especially on the sidelines, the Chiefs don’t seem to care. The mood at Arrowhead this week may resemble a funeral.
KC will be starting Chris Oladokun will lead the Chiefs’ offense that looked terrible with Gardner Minchew in last week as the backup (now injured). He’ll face the worst possible defense, this side of Houston.
It’s an easy decision here to lay what usually would be untouchable—laying double digits on a division road favorite. But this contrast is about as black and white as it gets. One motivated team with a great defense facing an opponent that may have trouble scoring, with nothing to play for, and a locker room that’s already making reservations for the off-season. Call me a little crazy and emotional, but I also think the major distraction/announcement about KC leaving Arrowhead really kills what was left of any morale or attempt to put up a decent effort.
<<< more pending >>>
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FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR WEEK 17:
(For those who just want the picks)
DAL-WAS: Full-Game Side – Washington +8.5…W
DAL-WAS: Full-Game Total – UNDER 51…L
DAL-WAS: Player Prop – WAS WR McLaurin OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-115)…W
DET-MIN: Player Prop – MIN QB Brosmer to throw an interception–YES (-155)…L
DEN-KC: Full-Game Side – Denver -13.5…L
HOU-LAC: First-Half Line – Houston +.5 (-115)
HOU-LAC: First-Half Team Total – Houston OVER 9.5 points (-115)
HOU-LAC: Full-Game Line – Houston +2
HOU -LAC: Player Prop – HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 7.5 points (-115)
ARZ-CIN: Full-Game Line – Cincinnati -7 (-115)
ARZ-CIN: Player Prop — ARZ QB Brissett OVER 252.5 passing yards (-115)
TB-MIA: Player Prop — MIA RB Achane OVER 73.5 rushing yards
NWE-NYJ: Player Prop — NYJ PK Folk OVER 1.5 field goals (+120)
NOR-TEN: Full-Game Line — New Orleans -2.5 (-115)
NOR-TEN: Player Prop — NOR QB Shough OVER 222.5 passing yards
NYG-LV: Player Prop — LV RB Jeanty OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
LAR-ATL: Full-Game Line — Atlanta +8.5