2025 NFL: WEEK 1 — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
I have two picks on tonight’s NFL season opener (Dallas at Philadelphia). Here’s the early weekly write-up with my reasoning behind these two selections (click below):
WELCOME / ANNOUNCEMENT:
I’ll be posting my analysis and picks for the 2025-26 NFL season exclusively at Betcoin.ag. Most weeks, I’ll have the early game(s) posted by Thursday morning. All the analyzed games and picks for the week will be completed and posted by Saturday night. For those new here or unfamiliar with what I do – you will see a lot of bets most weeks. Last season, I posted 301 plays here on the site. I believe that’s as high a number a picks as you will find at any free content site (correct me if you see any handicapper post more free plays).
MY PAST PERFORMANCE:
Here are last season’s results of all those 301 picks that were posted at Betcoin.ag. Full Disclosure: I struggled much of the regular season, hovering around the break-even mark for several weeks. Some things I uncovered in my handicapping strategies were successful. Others failed miserably. I’ll share some of the lessons learned on occasion here with readers. Fortunately, I closed the season strongly, ending up at +25 games above the .500 mark and a +7.93 percent profit margin.
2024-25 SEASON NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 161
LOSSES — 136
PUSH — 4
NET WIN/LOSS — + $793
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
ENDING BANKROLL; $10,793
Dating back to the start of the 2012 NFL season, I have enjoyed a successful run. One season (2015) I went completely broke late in the year. Two seasons ago, I finished second in the Westgate NFL SuperContest (netting about $185,000). I presume I’ll finish someplace in between those extremes, this year.
With last season’s numbers, for those keeping score, that’s 10 winning seasons and 3 losing seasons. All results are verifiable with old reports for almost every NFL week over the last 13 years (see: www.nolandalla.com).
I also welcome feedback you wish to share (see my email at the end of this article). I’ll also monitor the comments here on this page, and respond to any constructive feedback. Our goal is the same – to learn and to win.
MPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR WEEK 1:
DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA (Thursday Night)
Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the rival Dallas Cowboys Thursday night in an attractive mid-week opener that’s become the season’s official kickoff classic. Betting markets list the Eagles as -8 to -8.5 point favorites. A higher-than-average score is predicted as the O/U is 47.5 points.
High-profile games like this attract a huge volume of betting action. They also tend to be overanalyzed, with every sports site overlapping with opinions and predictions.
Pro Tip: Very often, the pregame previews cancel each other out. Roughly half the “experts” pick one side and half pick the other. Who knows what to believe and whom to trust? In fairness, compelling arguments can be made for both sides, especially in a rivalry game like this one.
Nonetheless, some facts are vital to handicapping and picking the right side, as well as making wise prop wagers. One critical fact is Dallas comes into the season with huge defensive question marks, which appear to have worsened now after the blockbuster DE Micah Parsons’ trade deal. The Cowboys stumbled through the 2024 season. They allowed massive yardage and points (468 points allowed last season!) — and now one of their best players is gone. Dallas also brings in a new head coach and defensive coordinator. Playing a road game versus an elite team appears to be a formidable challenge, which is why the underdog Cowboys are getting more than a touchdown, and the line has risen since the opener.
Philadelphia returns most of its players and staff for a team that steadily improved as the 2024 season went along. By the time the Eagles reached the Super Bowl and demolished the defending champ Chiefs, there was no doubt they were the best team in the NFL. Hence, the first game of the new season comes down to motivation. On paper, the Eagles are much better than the Cowboys. But can they and will they cover the high number?
For wagers, I’m down on these two:
AUBREY OVER ON FGS – Dallas kicker Aubrey ranks second in the NFL at his position. His long-range precision is becoming something of a legend — last season, he made 14/17 from 50+. Overall, he was 40/47 on successful FGs, averaging well over 2+ per game. His O/U on successful FGs is 1.5 for this matchup, but it’s jaded heavily to the OVER at -155. I still perceive the OVER has value here, due in part to Philadelphia being one of the league’s best red zone teams. Not only is Aubrey likely to be called upon for anything within 60 yards, there’s a fair chance Dallas will find the Eagles’ defense tougher as they get closer to the goal line, and that could result in more stalled drives. The Cowboys have usually moved the ball well with veteran Prescott at QB (his yardage figures are actually quite impressive). However, he also missed 9 games last season and comes off a serious hamstring injury. I expect Dallas will be able to move the ball, but will also stall at least a few times in Eagles’ territory, meaning that Aubrey’s number will be called. Obviously, a close game will help this prop go OVER. The last thing we want is a blowout, meaning FGs become less important to the outcome.
HURTS OVER ON RUSH YARDS – A second prop I’m betting is QB Hurts to go OVER 35.5 rushing yards. Hurts’ O/U on carries is 9, which is high for a QB. However, Hurts has a history of tucking the ball and running, especially when receivers are covered and he spots an open field. Early-season games sometimes create out-of-sync scenarios for offenses, even with good teams. I think it’s more likely Hurts runs in some of these cover situations, and given his power and versatility, he’s a QB that can break long rushes on any play. Hurts’ OVER on rushing yardage is helped significantly by Dallas’ #32 ranking last season (dead last) allowing QB rushing yards. With some turnover on the Cowboys’ defense, Hurts should be able to find a few spots to pick up yardage. Last season, Hurts exceeded 36 yards rushing in 11 of his 17 games including the postseason (he missed a few due to injury). This is jaded to the OVER with vig, but I’m still on this at a good number. It’s worth a bet all the way up to 40 in my opinion.
Wagers:
– Dallas PK Aubrey OVER 1.5 successful field goals (-155)
– Philadelphia QB Hurts OVER 35.5 rushing yards (-140)
WEEK #1 FINAL PICKS (CLICK THE LINK TO READ THE COMPLETE WRITE-UP):
– Dallas PK Aubrey OVER 1.5 successful field goals (-155)…W
– Philadelphia QB Hurts OVER 35.5 rushing yards (-140)…W
— LA Chargers +3 (even)…W
— Chargers TE Conklin OVER 16.5 receiving yards (-130)…W
— PIT/NYJ Team Prop–Will both team kickers make FGs of 33+ yards? — YES (-130)
— Indianapolis QB Jones to throw an interception — YES (+105)
— Tampa Bay team total OVER 23.5 points (-110)
— TB/ATL OVER 23.5 points in the first half (-120)
— Two-team 6-point teaser: Arizona (-.5) / Washington -2 (-120)
— Washington -6
— Carolina +3.5
— Carolina +.5 (half point) in first quarter
— Cleveland +3 in first half
— Cleveland TE Njoku OVER 49.5 receiving yards
— Las Vegas TE Bowers UNDER 6.5 receptions (-115)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.