2025 NFL: DIVISION ROUND PLAYOFF GAMES — ANALYSIS AND PICKS
2025 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 166
LOSSES — 128
PUSH — 7
NET WIN/LOSS — +$2,175
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 3-5-0 (-$270)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $12,175.
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
[Click HERE to read the previous week’s report.]
(Note: 2 futures bets are still pending)
LAR-CAR: Full-Game Line — Carolina +10.5…W
LAR-CAR: Full-Game Total — UNDER 46.5…L
GB-CHI: Full-Game Total – UNDER 45 points…L
BUF-JAX: Full-Game Line — Jacksonville (pick)…L
BUF-JAX: First-half Line — Jacksonville (pick)…L
SFO-PHI: Full-Game Total – UNDER 44.4 points…W
LAC-NWE: Player Prop — LAC QB Herbert to throw an int.–YES (-130)…L
HOU-PIT: First-Half Line — Pittsburgh +2.5 (-115)…W
THE FUTURE IS NOW (PENDING SEASON-LONG BETS):
Futures Bet — Drake Maye to win MVP (-365)
Futures Bet — Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year (+105)
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.
ANALYSIS AND PICKS FOR DIVISION ROUND WEEK:
I guess I should have just kept things simple and easy.
Last week, I pointed out that outdoor playoff games have been great UNDER bets over the past decade. I should have just listened to that simple advice and bet all six games blindly, but then I got scared of a couple of low totals and got way too cute with my handicapping. I did bet both UNDERs on the Saturday games, losing both. Somehow, those were the only two OVERs this past weekend as *all four* of the remaining games swept and went 4-0 to the UNDER. So, the UNDERs ended up crushing it again and going 4-2 for the week. I missed the cruise boat and free lunch.
Now, on to the Divisional Round. Should we bet UNDER in this round across the board, as well? After all, each of these four games continues and are outdoors. Three of four are in cold-weather cities, and Seattle can be just as hostile — though it’s not as cold as Denver, Chicago, and New England.
This must be seriously considered. I’ll write more about that in this week’s analysis. Keep in mind if we’re betting UNDERs and expecting less scoring than is projected, that impacts other possible wagers, as well.
BUFFALO vs. DENVER
Full-Game Side — Buffalo +1.5
Full-Game Total — UNDER 46.5
Player Prop — BUF TE Dawson Knox OVER 2.5 receptions (+135)
Player Prop — DEN WR Troy Franklin OVER 2.5 receptions (+120)
Weather will be comparatively mild in Denver for Saturday’s first playoff game. No snow or wind, and temps in the mid- to high 30s (report as of Thursday night). That’s one reason why the total hasn’t budged off of 46.5 points. An UNDER bet means placing faith in one or hopefully both defenses. Trusting the Broncos’ defense is easy and well-deserved given their top-5 ranking in nearly every meaningful statistical category. Denver ranks #2 overall in fewest yards allowed. The Bills’ defense is slightly more suspect, but Denver’s somewhat inconsistent offense may not have quite the firepower to take advantage of buffalo’s weaknesses. I’ve written about the UNDER angle on playoff totals, which I’ll ride with in this game. I also don’t trust QB Bo Nix to match perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen. Accordingly, I’m wagering both on Buffalo as a small underdog and the UNDER in this game. I’m also riding with two player props, which somewhat contradict my forecast for a close game that falls slightly below the scoring projection.
Taking nothing away from Denver’s outstanding 14-win season, the Broncos went on a stunning run when they somehow trailed in nearly every game this season, yet still came back to win. Much like we’ve seen this season with the Chicago Bears, the Broncos should be credited for playing well when it counts the most. Nonetheless, I can’t help but suspect these mediocre efforts through the first three quarters (especially on offense) will finally catch up with them this week. Buffalo follows similar scripts in their games, starting slowly but gradually wearing down opponents and playing better as the game goes along. Still, after seeing Buffalo’s effort in Jacksonville last week, they’re certainly capable of another road win and potential mild upset. FWIW, I also think Jacksonville may have been one of the three best teams in the NFL (certainly superior to Denver at this point). Beating the Jags on their home turf was a major statement and proof this team may be just as solid as in years past. And since the Jaguars dismantled the Broncos just four weeks ago, winning at Denver by two touchdowns, Buffalo comes in as a similar foe. Comparative wins and losses are not linear, but these recent results merit some weight.
Obviously, Buffalo comes into this matchup with the ghosts of playoff disappointment in many years past. But the source of misery was almost entirely KC-based. Denver’s Bo Nix and this offense are not Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. My suspicions are that Buffalo will show their pedigree as a veteran playoff team and will be able to handle Denver, which almost everyone will agree was a surprise #1-seed this season. Although the game was played almost exactly one year ago, Buffalo thoroughly dominated Denver in last year’s playoffs, destroying the Broncos 31-7. Denver has matured into a much better team, but I believe Buffalo is still just as good. So, edge to Buffalo based on postseason experience and the proven record of winning every game (at least until Kansas City).
Two player props tempt me, and both are somewhat contradictory to UNDER wagering. I like one receiver on each team to exceed his projected number of receptions. Here’s my reasoning:
BUF TE — Dawson Knox OVER 2.5 receptions (+135): Knox’s projections plunged once news came out this week that 1A of this Bill tight end duo will play. Dalton Kincaid will play despite an injury. which (presumably) makes Knox as the 1B of the Bills short-yardage receivership less essential. I’m betting the other way on public perception. First, we’re not really sure Kincaid is at 100 percent. Even if he plays at full strength, Knox is one of those targets that remains under the radar. Evidence is — Knox has caught 3+ passes in 6 of his last 8 games. Three catches in a playoff win last week, including a touchdown should inspire Buffalo to target Knox. QB Josh Allen was 28/35 last week and we can probably expect a similar script. Assuming 35 pass attempts, Knox should be in the field for enough downs to get 3 balls. Add the fact Denver is one of the best pass-rushing defenses in the league, and that likely creates a shorter pass game where tight ends factor into play as safety valves. I’m not sure what kind of yardage Knox will pick up, but he should see his number called enough times to break this number. Getting generous plus money at +135 is the real bonus here. Even if the prospects are 50/50. the +135 potential return makes this very attractive. And, if Kincaid is not as healthy as we expect (many players this time of year want to be on the field, even at less than 100 percent), that gives Knox even greater opportunity to break the O/U 2.5 on pass receptions.
DEN WR — Troy Franklin OVER 2.5 receptions (+120): Guess which NFL QB attempted more passes than any other this season? Most NFL fans would think Stafford, Goff, Maye, Prescott, Mahomes, Lawrence, or maybe a few others. Try this instead—-Bo Nix. He has 612 pass attempts this season, amounting to 36 per game. His O/U this week is 33.5, which makes for a very tempting OVER bet. Still, I’m not sure there’s quite enough value on that, and instead am focusing on one of the WR targets for Denver. We’re told Denver will run the ball more this week as Buffalo is vulnerable against the run but then we see head coach Sean Payton frequently lapse into his Drew-Brees days in New Orleans as fling it on most downs. This is trademark Payton. Nix will struggle, I predict. Nonetheless, Franklin has become a solid go-to receiver who has nabbed 3 or more catches in 14 of 17 games this season. Like on the other prop, we’re getting plus money here, so this becomes too compelling to pass up. Assuming Denver plays to their customary style (playing from behind or close) Franklin will be very much involved in the action. Note that Courtland Sutton (the other WR) gets much of the attention with 124 targets this season, but Franklin is #2 on the team with 104 (including 65 catches) and no one else is even close. Asking Franklin to get three balls in a game of this importance looks like a solid bet.
FINAL LIST OF PICKS FOR PLAYOFFS / DIVISIONAL ROUND
(For those who just want the picks)
Full-Game Side — Buffalo +1.5
Full-Game Total — BUF-DEN UNDER 46.5
Player Prop — BUF TE Dawson Knox OVER 2.5 receptions (+135)
Player Prop — DEN WR Troy Franklin OVER 2.5 receptions (+120)
Full-Game Total — SFO-SEA UNDER 45.5
Full-Game Side — Houston +3
Full-Game Total — HOU-NWE UNDER 41
Player Prop — NWE QB Maye to throw an interception–YES (-125)
Full-Game Total — LAR-CHI UNDER 48.5
Player Prop — LAR QB Stafford to throw an interception–YES
IMPORTANT NOTE:
Be sure and visit BETCOIN.AG
CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.