2024 NFL Analysis and Picks: Week 12

 

********************************************
2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 85
LOSSES — 65
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — + $811
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-2 (+ $480)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL; $10,811.
********************************************

ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 11):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 11 REPORT HERE

First Quarter Side: Washington +.5 vs. PHI (-115) … [W]
Player Prop: PHI HURTS more rushing yards than WAS DANIELS … [W]
Two-Team Teaser: GREEN BAY (even) vs. CHI / HOUSTON -1.5 vs. DAL … [W]
Player Prop: MIN RB JONES OVER 59.5 rushing yards … [L]
Player Prop: INDY PK GAY OVER 6.5 points (-110) … [W]
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 vs. NYJ (-105) … [W]
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. NYJ … [W]
First-Half Side: NEW ENGLAND +3 vs. LAR … [L]
Full-Game Side: LA CHARGERS -1.5 vs. CIN … [W]

 

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.

 

 

THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (WEEK 12)

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
PITTSBURGH VS. CLEVELAND – TWO PLAYER PROPS

Throughout his career, Jameis Winston interception props have been like taking candy away from a baby. However, in his defense, Winston didn’t throw any picks in 2 of his 3 starts this season (he did throw 3 picks against the Chargers, two weeks ago). This matchup appears to have all the preconditions for one –or more– Winston interceptions. Note that this player prop is sometimes listed at “O/U .5” on the interception count. I’m betting OVER .5 or “yes” on the proposition.

Here are the reasons: First, the weather for Thursday night’s game in Cleveland should be miserable. That is, miserably wonderful–for us. High 30s in temperature and chance of rain at 80 percent at kickoff. It’s important this isn’t a snow forecast–but rain. That makes for a slippery ball. The cold won’t help Winston either, who after spending his career in warm-weather Tampa and New Orleans will play his first home game in the cold winter mix. That can’t be a positive for a QB who has always struggled with accuracy. Indeed, Winston has been an interception machine for his entire NFL career, often making high-risk throws that sometimes produces big numbers, but also creates turnovers. The Browns have nothing to play for at this point except pride. Nearing what’s likely his final shot as a starting QB, look for Winston to air it out this week despite the adverse conditions. Note that Winston had 40+ passing attempts in each of his last three games, more than any player in the league in that recent span. If he throws 40 passes in this game, the Browns are likely to lose, and he’ll have at least one picked off.

Pittsburgh is another tough defense that applies pressure. By some metrics, the Steelers are the highest pressure unit in the NFL. Last time Winston played a defense at this level, he threw three interceptions (in the Chargers game). The Browns OL is also a mess, losing two starters from last week. That won’t help Winston’s shaky pass protection, and is likely to allow the aggressive Pittsburgh DL lots of opportunities to get to the QB, leading to possible mistakes and interceptions. Since Cleveland is likely to be playing from behind at some point, that also increases the chances of more passing, greater risks, and likely turnovers.

Of course, interceptions are difficult to predict and have a high rate of variance (tipped balls, hail mary passes, etc. are often impossible to forecast). That said, Pittsburgh is one of the league’s best defense at forcing interceptions (ranking #5 in the league).

Given the gloomy weather and slippery conditions, a really bad OL, a good DL at applying pressure, a mistake-prone QB who is among the leaders in pass attempts, and Winston’s own notoriety for throwing lots of interceptions, the 2:1 lay price here is justified. A typical lay price is somewhere around -135 on the yes prop, and with all the added intangibles, that’s still worth the high vig. In fact, I expect Winston to toss at least a couple of balls to the black and gold jerseys.

One other player prop I like in this matchup is Browns RB Nick Chubb to go UNDER on his rushing yardage total. I’ve seen this listed at 51.5 at a few sportsbooks here in Las Vegas. I found the best number at 54.5 at the Westgate. That 3 extra yards could be huge. I’d bet it at 51.5, but I really like this bet much more at 54.5. Shop around if you can.

Chubb is living off his (perhaps outdated) reputation as one of the best RBs in the NFL, but he hasn’t done shit for the Browns this season. Maybe that’s not entirely his fault, given he was injured and missed half the season. Add the fact the Browns have one of the worst offensive lines and football and lowest YPG averages (just 88 yards per game as a team) and it’s hard to see where the yards will come from this week. Oh, and Pittsburgh’s stout defense allows just 90 YPG, ranking #4 among all NFL teams, and these low projections are consistent with Chubb (or any other RB) struggling again.

As for Chubb’s personal stats, he’s not eclipsed 54.5 yards in any of his four starts this season. Since his return from injury, Chubb’s yardage on the ground has been 50-39-52. With one other partial game played, that totals just 163 rushing yards on 53 carries this season. Moreover, if QB Winston is throwing 40+ passes per game (he’s passed for 41-44-46 attempts in his three starts–why would he not be expected to throw roughly the same number of attempts this week?) that’s fewer opportunities Chubb to touch the ball and grind out yardage on the ground. Chubb is gaining a pitiful 3.1 YPC so far this season, and this week will be up against a solid Steelers’ defense that is very effective at stopping the run. So, it seems doubtful the Browns will suddenly go run-heavy given his lack of production and OL issues. I also doubt that the wintery conditions in Cleveland will help boost Chubb’s yardage tally in this game.

Picks:
Player Prop: PIT-CLE — CLE QB WINSTON to throw an interception (yes at -200)
Player Prop: PIT-CLE — CLE RB CHUBB under 54.5 rushing yards (-115)

 

FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK 12:

(For those who just want the picks):

Player Prop: PIT-CLE — CLE QB WINSTON to throw an interceptions (yes at -200) … {W}

Player Prop: PIT-CLE — CLE RB CHUBB under 54.5 rushing yards (-115) … {L}

Player Prop: DEN-LVR — DEN QB NIX over 214.5 passing yards (-115)

Two-Team 5-Point Teaser — HOU -2.5 vs. TEN / WAS -5 vs. DAL …  

Full-Game Side — CHI +3.5 vs. MIN (-120) 

Player Prop: DET vs. IND — IND WR DOWNS over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)

Player Prop: DET vs. IND — IND PK GAY over 6.5 points (-120) 

First-Quarter Side: CAR +3 vs. KC (-115)

Full-Game Total: ARZ-SEA UNDER 47.5

Player Prop: PHI-LAR — PHI QB Hurts to score a TD–yes (-135)

 

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

Be sure and visit BETCOIN CLICK HERE for all of my game write-ups and picks for this week.