2022 NFL Analysis and Picks (Week 16)

For this week’s “Best Seat in the House” we’re going back in time, many years.

The greatest play in NFL history happened on December 23, 1972, which was 50 years ago. The anniversary was to be celebrated this Saturday; coincidentally, the Raiders return to Pittsburgh in NFL Week 16 to play the Steelers. Then, earlier this week, Franco Harris, who was the star of what became known as “the immaculate reception,” suddenly died–at 72.

Oh, the irony.

Marieta (shown above) and I visited the old Three Rivers Stadium back in the 1990s.  I snapped this picture a day before a Steelers’ home game.

When we think of shrines and sacred places, it doesn’t get much more hallowed for sports fans than the spot on the frozen turf where Harris caught Terry Bradshaw’s desperate last-second deflected pass for the miraculous winning touchdown–a moment frozen in time. Marieta and I walked across the field and I felt chills. Even though I’m not a Steelers fan, I still do love the nostalgia.

The sacred shrine known as Three Rivers Stadium was demolished in 2001. The place where the temple once entertained and inspired millions is now office buildings and a parking lot.  But some moments will never be erased.

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I’ve been in a slump for the past month.  At end of November, I reached the 61 percent win mark, at +35 games over .500 based on 150+ picks, which is outstanding.  Back then, I knew those percentages couldn’t continue (no one hits those percentages over the long run–and if they say they do, they’re lying).  I also said I’d be happy to end up the season somewhere in the high 50s.  Moreover, historically speaking, I don’t handicap games nearly as well toward the end of the season.  I’m not sure why this is so, but my record is far better with picks in Weeks 1-10 than Weeks 11-18.  The numbers speak for themselves.  My win percentages have always been strong in early-season picks, and are well above average overall.  But let me confess to readers and warn anyone who bets the picks, especially new readers, that I have struggled historically as the season wears on.  All I can do is try to work through this and try to adjust handicapping, when applicable.  It’s an imperfect science.

To be clear — I always post the bad along with the good.  It’s important to keep an honest record and be upfront about what I’m doing and what you’re reading.  I doubt you’ll find many “professional handicappers” being as honest about what they do.  And, if they aren’t posting comprehensive records, then RUN the other way.  No one who fails to post honest records is worth reading, watching, or following.

Last Week’s Results:  5 wins, 9 losses, net -$900
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
Prop–J.K. Dobbins OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. WON
Miami / Buffalo UNDER 43 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 …. LOST
Seattle Team Total in First Half OVER 9.5 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. LOST
Prop-Geno Smith OVER 21.5 Pass Completions (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. WON
Detroit Lions +.5 (half point) vs. NY Jets (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Kansas City / Houston UNDER 49 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
Chicago Bears Team Total First-Half OVER 9.5 (-125) — Risking $250 to win $200 ….. LOST
Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Pittsburgh (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
New England +1.5 First-Half (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
Prop: Tom Brady OVER 26.5 pass completions (-105) — Risking $210 to win $200 ….. WON
New York Giants +4.5 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
LA Rams +7 (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
LA Rams Moneyline (+260) — Risking $100 to win $260 ….. LOST

Now, it’s on to Week 16.

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NFL WAGERING RECORD (2022)
129 Wins
91 Losses
0 Pushes
Starting Bankroll: $10,000.
Current Bankroll: $15,918.
Net Gain/Loss: + $5,918.
Last Week’s Results: 5 wins – 7 losses (- $900.)
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MONDAY NIGHT GAME UPDATE:

[MNF]  LA Chargers at Indianapolis
Line: Chargers -4
O/U: 45.5

Analysis: I don’t trust the Chargers as a road favorite. This is a team with no rushing attack, badly coached, and mediocre defense. They aren’t suited to go on the road and lay -4. So, my first reaction is to take the home dog plus the points. The Colts have been an interesting team since the coaching change (Jeff Saturday took over after Week 9). Since then, Indy has: (1) upset the Raiders on the road, (2) almost beat Philadelphia at home, losing by a point, but covering, (3) lost by 7 at home on MNF to Pittsburgh, (4) was ahead at Dallas and then gave up a whopping 33 points in the 4thQ, (5) Blew the biggest lead in NFL history losing at Minnesota last week, but covering the spread. It’s tough to say how the Colts react coming off two stunning collapses in the previous two games. But what those efforts do show is the Colts have been a pretty good team early in games. They had leads at one time in all five games, and the offense moved the ball well, especially in the first half. Accordingly, I like the Colts team total OVER 9.5 in the 1H here, especially at home in a redux spot on MNF. The Chargers’ defense doesn’t scare anybody and the Colts certainly have enough weapons to reach the 10-point mark. Nick Foles is reportedly starting for Indy, which adds to the uncertainty. He’s been nowhere near the Super Bowl-winning QB of five seasons ago. Nonetheless, this is an audition opportunity, so the change could jump-start a team that probably needs something new to recover from the disappointment of the previous two games. Even though are without RB Taylor, they still have run the ball well, and will face the #31 ranked defense against the run. So, that should take some pressure off Foles and the passing game. All we need is 10 points, and I think Indy can reach that in their final meaningful game of the season. The Colts were eliminated from the playoffs last week, but playing on MNF is usually a motivator for home dogs. It’s juiced high, but I still like it.

The Pick: Indianapolis Team Total OVER 9.5 (-135) — Risking $305 to win $200

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SUNDAY GAMES UPDATE:

Green Bay at Miami
Line: Dolphins -3.5
O/U: 49.5

Analysis: Both teams have been hard to figure out lately. The Packers saved their season with a MNF win just six days ago, but that was versus the outmanned Rams. Meanwhile, the Dolphins were the hottest team in the NFL at the start of December. Since then, Miami has lost three straight and looked horrible in two of those defeats. Given a bit of desperation for both teams and what i predict could be a wild, close, high-scoring game, I’ll fire on the OVER in this game, even though the total is higher than average at 49.5. Weather won’t be a factor in Miami. Both teams are also on an OVER roll lately. Green Bay has hit the OVER in 4 of their last 5 games; Miami has hit the OVER in 5 of their last 7 games. I’m especially glad to fade Miami’s defense, which looks soft (and often confused at times).

The Pick: Green Bay / Miami OVER 49.5 — Risking $220 to win $200

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Denver at LA Rams
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 36.5

Analysis:   The only unit on the field that’s worth backing is the Denver defense, which I’ve been raving about all season long. This is a Super Bowl-caliber unit that’s played their asses off, which is terribly overlooked. They should feast on the Rams and a patchwork offensive line today, which had trouble against mediocre defensive units. Now, they face one of the toughest tests of the year and are likely to have problems. I lean to Denver -3 and UNDER 16.5 points on the Rams’ team total. However, I’ll skip those wagers and instead focus on a contrarian wager. QB Russell Wilson has suffered a dreadful season. He’s arguably the most disappointing player in the NFL this season, and his future appears uncertain. That said, coming off an injury with a couple of weeks rest, Wilson gets a chance to hit the reset button now, and play in a showcase Christmas Day game. The season was lost weeks ago, but Wilson should get enough passing yards to break his very low passing yardage prop. The prop lists Wilson at a season-low 217.5 yards. In a dome, rested and recovered, with an offensive unit that knows they’ve played poorly, look for Wilson to get enough yardage through the air to surpass this total. In Wilson’s 12 games this season, he’s surpassed 217.5 in 8 of those starts (2/3rds), and the confines of indoors should boost those numbers. I’ll lay -115 on this prop.

The Pick: Prop — Wilson Passing Yards OVER 217.5 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200

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[SNF]  Tampa Bay at Arizona
Line: Bucs -8
O/U: 40.5

Analysis: I’m going back to the wishing well one more time and betting Tom Brady OVER 26.5 pass completions, which is the same number I bet last week (that won– Brady completed 30 passes). Even when the Bucs struggle, Brady somehow gets plenty of pass completions. This seems counter-intuitive, but the stats don’t lie on this fact, yet oddsmakers haven’t made any adjustment. Brady’s pass completions since Oct. 1st read as follows: 30-34-36-29-22-36-26-32-25-35-39-31. That’s 10 out of 12 to the OVER 26.5, and the two UNDERs fell just short. Getting any value with an OVER prop connected to GOAT Brady is almost unheard of, but I don’t see the Bucs changing their system this late in the season. To be clear, Tampa Bay may not be throwing every down in the 4th quarter as in the past, as they’re favored and should be ahead rather than trailing late in the game. This is an important fact, as those extra completions (often against prevent defenses) are where stats get padded. However, Brady is throwing against a soft defense and the completions should be easy. Last week, even a bad Denver offense completed 21 passes. I’ll go OVER this number one more time.

The Pick: Prop: Tom Brady OVER 26.5 Pass Completions — Risking $220 to win $200

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SATURDAY GAMES UPDATE:

So, because of the holidays and being busy and having one less day to research and write, I’m making this the final report through Saturday’s games.  I”ll post full reports and picks on the Sunday-Monday games tomorrow.  So, look for those to be up sometime Saturday night.

Merry Xmas and Happy Holidays.  Here’s my list of wagers so far this week:

UPDATED RECORD: 12-6 (+1,000)

Jacksonville +1 — Risking $200 to win $200 ….. WON
Buffalo/Chicago UNDER 41 (game) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
Buffalo/Chicago UNDER 20.5 (first half) — Risking $220 to win $200 …..WON
Seattle/Kanas City UNDER 49 (game) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Seattle/Kansas City UNDER 24.5 (first half) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Las Vegas/Pittsburgh UNDER 39 (game) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Las Vegas/Pittsburgh UNDER 19.5 (first half) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Prop: Ridder Interception Total OVER 0.5 (-130) — Risking $260 to win $200 ….. LOST
Prop: Dobbins Rushing Total OVER 60.5 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. LOST
Baltimore Team Total Full Game UNDER 20.5 — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON
Teaser: Jacksonville +8.5 / San Francisco -1 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON 
Teaser: San Francisco -1 / Chicago +14.5 — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. LOST
Teaser: San Francisco -1 / New Orleans +9 — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
Teaser: San Francisco -1 / Seattle +16 — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
Teaser: San Francisco -1 / Tampa Bay -1.5 — Risking $240 to win $200 ….. WON
Green Bay / Miami OVER 49.5 — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. LOST
The Pick: Prop — Wilson Passing Yards OVER 217.5 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 ….. LOST
Prop: Tom Brady OVER 26.5 Pass Completions — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. WON

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EARLY WEEK WAGERS:

Weather should be a significant factor in multiple outdoor games played this week, mostly on Saturday. I’ve bet these picks early because the totals might drop even further. If you bet these UNDERs, move fast because these numbers might not be available a few days from now.

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Buffalo at Chicago
Line: Bills -8.5
O/U: 41
The Picks: Buffalo/Chicago UNDER 41 (game) — Risking $220 to win $200 ; Buffalo/Chicago UNDER 20.5 (first half) — Risking $220 to win $200

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Seattle at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs -10
O/U: 49
The Picks: Seattle/Kanas City UNDER 49 (game) — Risking $220 to win $200 ; Seattle/Kansas City UNDER 24.5 (first half) — Risking $220 to win $200

NOTE:  This total has gone UP to 50.5 on Saturday morning.  I have no idea what the fuck people are thinking.  Gametime temp is 6 degrees.  Doesn’t mean an UNDER necessarily, but anyone betting this game OVER is out of their fucking mind.

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Las Vegas at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers -2
O/U: 39
The Picks: Las Vegas/Pittsburgh UNDER 39 (game) — Risking $220 to win $200 ; Las Vegas/Pittsburgh UNDER 19.5 (first half) — Risking $220 to win $200

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Note: Games in Cleveland and Baltimore should also be impacted significantly by weather. However, those totals have plunged to a nearly unplayable numbers — 32.5 in Cleveland and 35 in Baltimore.

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I’m doing things a little differently this week.

Harsh weather and lower totals also compel me to bet several teasers this week. Keep in mind the added +6 on pointspreads makes the extra bonus points even more meaningful when there’s less scoring.

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Washington at San Francisco
Line: 49ers -7
O/U: 37.5

Analysis: I’m using San Francisco at my anchor team in five teasers this week (one has already kicked off -posted earlier- which is JAX +8.5. I’m adding CHI, NOR, SEA, and TB to the betting basket. The 49ers look like an absolute beast right now, hitting on all cylinders. This is especially true for the 49ers’ #1 ranked defense, which can shut down any opponent and is allowing a league-low 15 PPG. San Francisco also appears to have found the spark of leadership in the huddle with the surprising play of QB Brock Purdy. He doesn’t need to win games all by himself, given he has such a talented supporting cast. Yet, Purdy looks as good as any veteran starter after just three NFL starts. I’m not quite buying 49ers Super Bowl tickets just yet, but Purdy is playing like a step up from the previous 1-2 QBs (both out for the season with injuries). Let’s add the 49ers (10-4 this season) have both won and covered the Spread in 14 of their last 19 games overall. San Francisco has a 9-5 record ATS compared to Washington’s 7-6-1 ATS mark. The 49ers have also covered the spread in five straight games. San Francisco is an even stronger bet as a home favorite, a role they have succeeded in with a 5-1 ATS record. Plus, they have a strong 6-3 ATS record following a win this season. Teasing one of the league’s best teams on a roll, at home, down to -1 seems like a wager we can make with confidence. / As for Washington, I’m not sure what their mental state will be coming off a disappointing loss to NYG at home, and now flying across the country to play a much tougher foe. Credit to the Commanders for a surprisingly positive season, and they’ll probably make the playoffs. But they just looked outclassed here. Maybe Washington keeps this close, which is why I’ll do the Wong teaser with the number for added insurance.

The Picks:
Teaser: San Francisco -1 / Chicago +14.5 — Risking $240 to win $200
Teaser: San Francisco -1 / New Orleans +9 — Risking $240 to win $200
Teaser: San Francisco -1 / Seattle +16 — Risking $240 to win $200
Teaser: San Francisco -1 / Tampa Bay -1.5 — Risking $240 to win $200

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Atlanta at Baltimore
Line: Ravens -6.5
O/U: 35

Analysis: Star QB Lamar Jackson has not played or practiced since injuring his knee in Week 13 against Denver. The Ravens’ offense has struggled badly without him in the lineup, averaging less than 10 points per game. The Ravens’ passing attack has also floundered and wide receivers rank 29th in the NFL with 114 receptions, 32nd with 1,328 yards, and 30th with only six touchdowns. One might expect the awful Falcons’ defense might jump-start Baltimore. But I’m not counting on that to happen. Tyler Huntley will start again, who simply doesn’t have the same skill set as Jackson, especially as a rushing threat. So, I’m leaning toward taking the points here simply based on the Ravens’ inability to score many points. Let’s also note Baltimore has played a creampuff schedule. This will be their ninth straight game versus an opponent with a losing W-L record. The Ravens have covered just once in their past five games, and that was a close 2-point win at Pittsburgh. / The question now is — can we play the Falcons? Seriously, is there a shittier road team? Atlanta is just 1-6 on the road this season, and doesn’t play anywhere close to the same level as when competing in the comforts of their domed stadium. Atlanta is probably the right side on paper (whatever that means as a data point), but I can’t put real money down on a team that’s so lifeless as a dog visitor. Rookie Desmond Ridder will be getting his second career start–which might be as bad a spot as there is for a young inexperienced QB. Even though the 9-5 Ravens have been awful ATS, their defense remains one of the NFL’s best — ranked #4 in points allowed. / Accordingly, I’m looking for totals and props that might take advantage of the Ravens’ superior defense, so as to not have to rely on a weak offense scoring lots of points. The best prop I can find is — Ridder OVER on interceptions (0.5) at -130. It’s likely the Falcons will be playing from behind, which usually creates more passing attempts. Falcons have also announced they want “to see what Ridder can do.” According to one quote, which tells me they might put the ball into the air more. So, I’m expecting a tough Baltimore defense that creates lots of pressure and is #5 in sacks and #4 in creating turnovers to create at least one interception. / I’ll also take Baltimore RB J.K. Dobbins OVER 60.5 rushing yards. He’ll get somewhere around 13-18 carries, especially since he’s coming off very successful back-to-back efforts — 125 yards last week and 120 yards the week before since returning from an injury. This prop at 60.5 seems ridiculously low and doesn’t account for an 8.5 YPC average in the last two games. / I’ll also jump in the Baltimore Team Total Points UNDER 20.5. Baltimore has not exceeded 16 points in any of its last three games with Huntley starting. Gametime temperature should be around 20 degrees.

The Picks: Ridder Interception Total OVER 0.5 (-130) — Risking $260 to win $200 / Dobbins Rushing Total OVER 60.5 (-115) — Risking $230 to win $200 / Baltimore Team Total Full Game UNDER 20.5 — Risking $220 to win $200

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THURSDAY NIGHT GAME UPDATE:

[TNF] Jacksonville at NY Jets
Line: Jets -1
O/U: 37

Analysis: The Jacksonville Jaguars are playing with loads of confidence right now — something you don’t typically associate with this long-suffering franchise. They’re coming off a thrilling 40-34 OT victory against Dallas last week. The Jaguars have also won consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3 of the season. The cats are a very respectable 4-1-1 ATS in their past 6 games. Even more impressive: The Jaguars have defeated three playoff-bound teams in 3 of their last 4 games — beating the Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, and Dallas Cowboys. It’s the quality of competition JAX has beaten that’s worth noticing. And now, they face a team that’s been struggling lately. The New York Jets lost a 20-17 heartbreaker to the surging Detroit Lions last Sunday. Like the Lions, the Jaguars appear to be reversing their bad history, which means the Jets are catching yet another hot opponent on an upswing. After a hot early start, the Jets have fallen to 7-7 SU on the season and are in danger of disappearing from the playoff hunt. The Jets have now dropped three games in a row, but all three were close one-score games. The Jets are probably down to their last chance to make any postseason run, and must win on Thursday night given how other teams in the conference are playing. This might be the last possible win given the Jets will face road games at Seattle and Miami in their final two games. If QB Mike White was starting, I might be less inclined to fade the Jets, but Zach Wilson is probably a good bet-against given what we’ve seen. As this is being posted Wednesday night, the Jets QB position still up in the air. In fact, I’m surprised the line didn’t move a few points since White is still listed as doubtful with a rib injury. We know this kid is tough as nails, but it seems unwise to rush him back into action, especially given this is a very short week (Thursday night game). As for betting on JAX and going against NYJ, I’m concerned about the solid Jets’ stout defense, which has kept this inconsistent team in many games this season. Credit the Jets for keeping 8 of their last 10 opponents to 20 points or fewer. However, the performance of the Jags is simply more impressive, and I certainly like Lawrence better than Wilson when it comes to backing talent. The line –getting a point– looks like a gift. Weather shouldn’t be a factor (temperatures in mid-40s at kickoff). So, I’ll take Jacksonville +1.

The Pick: Jacksonville +1 — Risking $200 to win $200 ….. WON

Update:  Line is up to NY Jets -2.5 (as of Thursday morning).  I’m adding one more pick based on this move:

Teaser: Jacksonville +8.5 / San Francisco -1 (-120) — Risking $240 to win $200 

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In previous weeks posted here at my site, many friends and colleagues —– including Scott Byron (New York Giants-CLICK HERE), Bruce Kramer (Philadelphia Eagles-CLICK HERE), Noah Carbone (Miami Dolphins-CLICK HERE), Jason March (Las Vegas Raiders-CLICK HERE), Linda Kenney Baden/Dr. Michael Baden (New York Jets-CLICK HERE), Bob Jones (NFL London at Wembley Stadium-CLICK HERE), Judd Greenagel (Minnesota Vikings-CLICK HERE), Chad Halloway (Chicago Bears-CLICK HERE), Joseph Freda (New England Patriots-CLICK HERE), Michael Minkoff (Las Vegas Raiders Television Studio-CLICK HERE), and Thrill Mrkvicka (Seattle Seahawk-CLICK HERE), Rory Lebeaux (New Orleans Saints-CLICK HERE)—– each shared their seat views.  Photos were posted here prior to the weekly write-ups.

Thanks to everyone for sending these and sharing.