NOLAN DALLA — 2016 NFL SEASON RECORD
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,860.
NET GAIN/LOSS: + $860.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 2 – 1 – 0 [+ $270.]
LAST WEEK: + $860.
Last Week’s Results: 10 winners / 6 losers
TAMPA BAY +3 (-115) at ATLANTA — Risking $345 to win $300 [BEST BET] ….. winner
TAMPA BAY MONEY LINE +125 — Risking $200 to win $250 ….. winner
TAMPA BAY / ATLANTA UNDER 47.5 — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. loser
TENNESSEE MONEY LINE +125 — Risking $200 to win $250 ….. loser
NY JETS MONEY LINE +120 — Risking $200 to win $240 ….. loser
NEW ORLEANS -1.5 vs. OAKLAND (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 [BEST BET] ….. loser
CHICAGO +5.5 at HOUSTON (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. loser
JACKSONVILLE MONEY LINE +200 — Risking $200 to win $400 ….. loser
MIAMI / SEATTLE UNDER 44 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 [BEST BET] ….. winner
MIAMI +10.5 at SEATTLE (-110) — Risking $110 to win $100 ….. winner
NY GIANTS (PICK) at DALLAS (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200 ….. winner
NEW ENGLAND / ARIZONA UNDER 45.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 ….. winner
BALTIMORE MONEY LINE -170 — Risking $340 to win $200 ….. winner
DENVER +3 (-110) vs. CAROLINA — $220 to win $200 ….. winner
CAROLINA/DENVER OVER 40.1 (-110) — $220 to win $200 ….. winner
DENVER MONEY LINE +145 — $200 to win $290 ….. winner
Random Thoughts:
I have a confession.
For the past four seasons since posting NFL weekly plays, I’ve been dishing out stale point spreads and totals. By “stale,” I mean old, something not fit for consumption. Like most football prognosticators who try to predict what will happen each week, I’ve been releasing my thoughts on Saturday night, and sometimes as late as Sunday morning.
Hence, I’m releasing stale material. However, so is almost everyone else. Think about it.
Releasing recommended plays on game day is sort of like walking up to the ticket window of a popular concert just hours before the music starts and then asking for front row seats. Where do you think you’ll end up sitting? If tickets are available at all, where will they be? That’s right. They’ll be the shittiest seats in the house. You’ll be sitting in the nose bleed seats next to the other late comers who waited until the last minute to buy tickets. That’s the essence of waiting and reacting to the market, instead of being early to action, being proactive, and anticipating where the numbers will go.
Indeed, sports betting works the same way. Logging in and checking out the lines right before game time is almost suicidal. You’re almost always getting the lousiest number, with all the value squeezed out. It’s like eating five-day old bread. Who would wan to eat moldy 5-day old bread?
As I said, this is a confession. I do regret that time doesn’t allow me the opportunity to write up detailed analysis on every game and release that on Tuesday morning (which is also too late in some cases, since the lines move within the first hour of release). Like most people, I have other things going on in the middle of the week, what you might call “a life.” So, I don’t get around to sharing my wagers with readers until Sunday. Besides, if I released my early wagers, no one would read them. I do mean NO ONE. Most of you would log in on Sunday and then make your plays, probably as you are doing right at this moment.
However, while I can drag might feet and comment on stale numbers, the betting touts don’t have this excuse. They have NO excuses at all. They are selling picks and then releasing their “expert opinions” usually after all the line value is gone. What kind of tout releases plays on game day? I’ll answer that — usually a con artist who’s not paying attention to what going on nor looking out for the best interest of the client. NOTE: Any tout who doesn’t release any picks early in the week is either a fraud or has no understanding of how the betting markets work. It’s that simple.
Fact is, to win in any sport, you almost always have to get there early to capture early numbers. At least, some of the time. Not all the time, but often. I always make a few wagers when the lines first come out. Then, I make more wagers as the lines move (especially where I see valuable numbers fading away that won’t be available later in the week). I make the majority of my NFL bets on Friday night (especially when betting volume). This allows me enough time to digest the information, and also see where the market is headed. However, even on Friday most of the value on many wagers is long gone. Thing is, since I’m not a tout and have never sold picks, I can release my plays whenever I want. But those of you who subscribe to tout services or follow some of these clowns might want to ask your “expert” why you’re eating stale shitty bread while the early market manipulators were feasting on fresh cake.
Naturally, all the lines and totals I put out here on my page prior to game time are the current lines. There’s no point in posting a recommendation on a team and then bragging that I got the number at +3.5 — when the current line is +3. Frankly, that would also be dishonest because someone could manipulate their win-loss record, and I’ve never done that. Hence, I’m always releasing stale numbers. So, please do take this under advisement.
That said, there are some legitimate situations where it’s better to wait until game day, as the betting public will hammer certain teams and situations (public teams, for instance get extra action closer to game time). Then, you can extract extra value by letting the echo chamber play itself out and bet the opposite direction. MNF is often a good example as lots of dumb money based on emotion floods into the market just a few hours before kickoff. There are a few examples of that this week, as well.
Week #1 was off to a good start. My bankroll increased by 8.6 percent. I’ll take that all season long if I can get that kind of return. Here are my thoughts on NFL Week #2:
First, some of the games I’m (probably) not betting….
— I’d love to take Kansas City attached the teaser lined up to +7.5 because I don’t see Houston offense winning by more than a TD versus a good team, which suffered a scare last week and should come in with better focus. Also have to like KC’s domination of this team in playoffs last season, which I’m not sure is an automatic revenge situation. However, current line is -1, so this is no bet.
— Really liked Cleveland at +6.5, esp. with change at QB to McCown. This might be an upgrade from Griffin who’s NFL career might be over. However, line now down to +5 in many places, so this is a no bet.
— Cincinnati at Pittsburgh should be a slug fest, and I lean towards Steelers laying -3. But I don’t like the short week here for Pittsburgh coming off a MNF win and see the FG possibly coming into play.
— I want no piece of two listless teams destined for mediocrity in DAL and WASH, but do lean UNDER 45.5. Looking for both teams to work on the running games based on mid-week reports.
— Impossible to bet on New Orleans with that horrid defense which showed absolutely no improvements last week. But I also won’t lay -4 or -4.5 either even though I predicted NY Giants will cake walk to NFC East division title. Going contrarian on UNDER 54 is tempting, but too dangerous given pedigree at QBs and the fact these two teams burned out the scoreboard last meeting with a 100 -point game.
— Entire world thinking Carolina blows out San Francisco with the extra rest and coming off last-second loss. Yes, that’s quite possibly the outcome, particularly with west coast team traveling east. But as a rule, I won’t lay close to two touchdowns, especially seeing that 49ers’ Gabbert looks like a legitimate NFL starter now.
— Tampa Bay is for real and tempted to take the +7 at Arizona. Cardinals have now played two sub-par games dating back to last season and also looked lost in the preseason. Yes, Arizona is a 10+ win team but they still may not be worthy of laying this money points versus a quality opponent. What makes me pass on betting the Bucs is the back-to-back road situation, esp. coming off big win in opener at Atlanta.
— Looking to go contrarian and take Indianapolis at Denver, which might be getting just a little too much respect coming off the win. They were +3, now they are -7 — both games at home? That’s a 10-point line move. That’s ridiculous. I’ll play the Colts if I can get +7. Current line is 6.5
— Hard to understand the line, and public reaction in the Atlanta-Oakland game. One might have expected Raiders to lay -5 or even -6 given that Falcons were dominated during stretches of last week’s game and now face a long road situation versus equally dangerous offense. Laying -4 seems too easy. Something I don’t like about this game. Experience tells me to stay away. I already bet this OVER 47 (early week), but total is now 48.5 so the value is reduced somewhat.
Wagers I made….
TENNESSEE +7 (-120) vs. DETROIT: Risking $360 to win $300 [Best Bet]
This appears to be a clear case of market overreaction to the events of Week #1. Last Sunday, the Titans actually outscored a very solid Vikings team 16-10, offensively speaking. Two (somewhat fluke) Minnesota defensive scores determined the final outcome against Tennessee. Despite that loss, I saw enough from the Titans to make be believe they’re probably close to even with the Lions in raw talent. Detroit celebrated a surprising road win last week at Indianapolis in a game they dominated for nearly three quarters. However, the defense didn’t play well (to be fair, the Colts were at home with QB Luck in the lineup). Tennessee should face a considerably easier test in this game playing the Lions D instead of Vikings, one of the NFL’s best units. Also, credit the Titans on defense for slowing down the division-winning Vikes last week. They’re clearly on the path to improvement and didn’t show signs that the loss was demoralizing. I see that loss as fuel for improvement, which is the sign of a respected coaching staff on a team on the rise. I say QB Marcus Mariota learns from some mistakes he made last week and has a better game here. This contest should be close and go down to the wire. We also get the benefit of a late line change which just hit +7. I’d still bet this at +6 or higher. But at +7, a wager on the dog is one of the week’s best bets.
MONEY LINE: NEW ENGLAND -250 vs. MIAMI: Risking $500 to win $200
I don’t normally lay points with public teams like the Patriots. There’s rarely any value attached to them. Still, I think betters might be slow reacting to New England’s astute sense of preparedness. They won outright as +9 dogs last week (with their two most important starters out) and now face a considerably weaker offensive foe at home. Yet, NWE is laying less than a TD. Miami has to be emotionally demoralized playing Seattle tough for 58 minutes last week only to lose in the closing seconds. Now, they have to travel cross country versus their division rival for yet another tough road game. I say the Patriots focus on getting the win only — not necessarily covering the -6.5 (current line). For this reason, I’m ratcheting down New England to a 5-2 money line wager. Dolphins problems are worsened by this division rivalry game coming without any experience on the Miami coaching staff. Normally, one thing to look at with new head coaches is seeing if they have any past familiarity within the division. That’s not the case here, which I think makes the Dolphins’ challenge all the more difficult. Miami had a paltry 222 total yards last week and just 11 first downs. Even in Seattle, those are low figures. Those numbers probably won’t improve much in yet another tough road environment. Give me the well-coached and motivated Patriots in their home opener, esp.with rest of Patriots team rallying around the capable backup QB.
LOS ANGELES +7 (-115) vs. SEATTLE: Risking $230 to win $200
Send me to a mental ward. This probably looks like a crazy wager based on how awful the shit Rams looked in the opener, but it’s the ultimate contrarian play. The public absolutely adores Seattle for all the obvious reasons. The Rams were a disgrace last week, losing 28-0 in a game that wasn’t even that close. So, the line has since increased on this game from -6 to -7. I believe LA Rams will use that bitter humiliation to at least put up a more serious fight here, especially in this highly-anticipated home opener in front of 93,000 plus with everything riding on the line. Moreover, Seattle looked dreadful on offense last week at home versus at team they should have defeated by double digits. The fears about the SEA offensive line problems are very, very real, and now QB Wilson’s ankle problems only make the prospects for Seahawks worse, especially versus a better than average Rams defensive front and pass rush. Rams also beat Seattle twice in 2015 (including once late season with QB Case Keenum), which reveals that coach Jeff Fisher and company have stolen a few pages from the Seattle playbook. Getting a full touchdown in any division game is exceeding rare in the NFL nowadays (even Cleveland is only getting +6 at home this week to vastly superior Baltimore). I’m speculating the Rams are much closer to the 7-9 team last season than the miserable uninspired pieces of dregs they resembled last week at San Francisco. By the way, I totally get it if you decide to pass and not bet on this game. But anyone who lays points with Seattle in this game is someone I sure would like to know as a bookmaker. That’s the biggest sucker bet the week. That’s a HORRIBLE wager. Please — if I know you and you make a bet on Seattle -7 in this game, do not tell me about it.
Note: Lock in +7 where you can get it. +7 was available at Coast Casinos in LV Saturday night. However, sharps might hammer that nail down to 6.5 by Sunday AM.
JACKSONVILLE +3 (EVEN) vs. SAN DIEGO: Risking $300 to win $300 [Best Bet]
Jacksonville isn’t the laughingstock of year’s past. This offense can clearly move the ball and score points and should improve as the season progresses. This week, the Jags face a much softer opponent (than Green Bay), esp. since San Diego has just lost their key play maker (WR out for season). That injury reportedly leaves SDI with much less variety on offense, especially going deep. I expect the Chargers will have trouble making adjustments now, and having to scale back the offense. These two teams lost heart breakers in Week #1, but I’m thinking the way both games played out the Chargers’ loss will have more of a carryover. Jags could take a lot positive away from the loss to Packers where they drove down to the 15 yd line for the winning score before finally losing the game. Meanwhile, Chargers had the game won and then blew it in the 4th quarter with a total defensive meltdown. In what should be a close contest, I’ll take the FG (+3) with the added bonus of no vig (EVEN).
FIRST HALF–INDIANAPOLIS + 3.5 (-110) vs. DENVER: Risking $275 to win $250
Even with the extra prep time (10 days since last Broncos’ game), one has to think Denver QB situation is still iffy. Now playing another playoff contender at home, esp. team coming off disappointing home loss last week, Broncos should be tested. Both teams have major question marks. Yet, Indy’s weakness (defense) might not be so vulnerable since Broncos might still be using scaled down playbook for QB starting his second career game. Have to think QB Luck has huge edge here and the added motivation of this big game makes me take the +3.5 with the road dog. Altitude in Denver games probably not so much an issue until 2H. Question about line on this game, which is around 6.5. If Carolina would have made the last-second FG last week and won, would the Broncos still be laying this many points? I don’t think so.
GREEN BAY -2 (-110) vs. MINNESOTA: Risking $220 to win $200
Tough for teams to play back-to-back on the road, but Packers are healthy and rested enough to get the job done here. Revenge spot for Green Bay, which needs to take control of division race with a win. I’d not normally play this game, and would guess the line would have been MINN -3 if Bridgewater was healthy. However, with San Bradford in camp only two weeks and now being shoved onto the field for his first start in a pressure situation, I’ll fade the prospect of success. Vikings offense looked horrid last week and I just don’t see Bradford as improvement. There’s been much talk about the crowd noise and I’d bet UNDER based on Bradford’s shaky condition with playbook combined with some sure false starts based on the crowd. However, number has dropped 2 full points off the 44 and is now hovering around 42. Have to pass on the total based on this number.
CHICAGO -3 vs. PHILADELPHIA: Risking $220 to win $200
Here’s an example of a game where the line moved badly against me early in the week. I missed the golden opener, which was -1. The value with the Bears is now long gone, but Chicago still looks to be the right side. Eagles might as well have had a bye last week versus inept Browns. Philadelphia, with rookie QB and new head coach will find their task far more difficult going into a road situation versus Chicago. Bears had a 14-10 halftime lead in Houston last week and then blew it in second half with a gutless effort. Got to believe John Fox and Vic Fazio are solid enough coaches to get the job done here at home playing on MNF. Agree that QB Jay Cutler is a deserving target as a horrible team leader who has become un-coachable. Still, he’s capable of putting up big numbers in some spots and one has to believe this is a perfect prime time situation against a soft opponent to build some team confidence. I’ll lay -3 here, but no higher.