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Posted by on Sep 10, 2016 in Blog | 1 comment

2016 NFL Regular Season: Week 1 Thoughts

 

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NOLAN DALLA — 2016 NFL SEASON RECORD

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $10,000.

NET GAIN/LOSS:  + / –  $0

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  0 – 0 – 0

LAST WEEK:  0 — 0 — 0

A few thoughts:

Note that this season, I’m removing the win-loss category from my record/results.  I see no point in counting wins and losses, particularly since many of the plays I make are on the money line.  Many also involve significant vig or positive overlay on the vig, which has to be taken into account.  All of this corrupts W-L results and bettors who coattail other handicappers are advised to beware of how little straight up W-L records really mean, in many cases.  For instance, it wouldn’t matter if you hit 70 percent of all picks if you’re laying huge chalk on favorites most of the time.  The end-results have to be taken into account — which is earnings and losses.  That’s the real benchmark of value betting and good capping.

This is one (of many) reasons I don’t like NFL handicapping contests, which have become quite popular in Las Vegas.  They don’t measure what really matters most — which is end of day/week/month/season money won or lost.

Hey, I totally get it if you’re horizon consists of nothing more than flat betting.  Enter exactly five picks on sides and five picks only can be great fun purely for shits and giggles.  But that’s a fraud of a benchmark for handicapping.  For instance, these contests don’t take into account any totals betting or team/player props or money lines, or any of the hundreds of other betting methods which are employed by most serious sports bettors.  Requiring bettors to fill out a weekly card and make a precise number of side wagers for that week only is about as indicative of actual (long term skill) as a hand of limit 5-card draw.  Actually, I think it’s a fucking joke.  Don’t ask me anymore about these kindergarten betting contests around Las Vegas.  They’re for ego and entertainment.  That’s it.  Nothing else.

Now that’s I’ve pissed off a shitload of my friends, let’s get to NFL Week #1.  I already posted three plays on the Thursday game, where are graded down below:  (13 plays)

 

TAMPA BAY +3 (-115) at ATLANTA — Risking $345 to win $300 [BEST BET]

TAMPA BAY MONEY LINE +125 — Risking $200 to win $250

TAMPA BAY / ATLANTA UNDER 47.5 — Risking $220 to win $200

Buccaneers beat the Falcons twice last season and are probably the better team, at least at the moment.  The dumped loser Lovie Smith as coach during the off-season and appear now in prime position to improve on a team that ranked in the top ten both defensively (#10) and offensively (#7) in yardage last season.  QB Winston was a pleasant surprise as a rookie starter, throwing for 4,000+ yards, had a high TD to INT ratio, and should be even more comfortable going into his second season.  Meanwhile, Atlanta was a disaster, losing 8 out of their final 11 games in 2016.  The defense regressed after a good run under previous coach, Mike Smith.  In Atlanta’s favor for Week #1, QB Matt Ryan has won all 8 of his home openers.  So, that’s a minor irritant.  Still, I think in a game where points could come at a premium (Falcons have played 11 straight UNDERs!), getting the field goal in a close divisional contest won by the road dog last year (and now improved) is the way to go.  Also looking for a big day from WR Mike Evans, who has ability and size.

 

TENNESSEE MONEY LINE +125 — Risking $200 to win $250

Call it a hunch that the Titans will be well-prepared for the Vikings, who will almost certainly have trouble on offense moving the ball with their quagmire of a quarterback situation.  Backup Sean Hill is expected to start.  Tennessee, playing at home with renewed enthusiasm and confidence, refurbished during the off-season with several proven free agent pick ups, should keep this game within range of winning outright.  Getting back a positive money price on the win prospect appears to have better value than taking the +2.5 (current line).  Yes, I’m aware that the Titans were horrid last season (3-13 SU), which is the reason they’re a home dog.  But they were also badly banged up and QB Mariota missed several games.  Titans reportedly believe in their head coach and Mike Mularkey’s system.  I might not have touched this game had Bridgewater not been injured and therefore starting, but getting points against such an unproven offensive foe which had relatively little time to prepare seems to be the positive EV play here.  Vikings blundered in a very similar spot last season in the opener, losing outright to the awful 49ers.

 

NY JETS MONEYLINE +120 — Risking $200 to win $240

I’m not convinced the NY Jets will post a winning record this season.  I have them slated for 7 wins.  However, they do match up well here in contest that has seen the line shift from the Jets being small favorites to +2.5 underdogs.  Too many bettors appear to be expecting the Bengals to pick up from last season’s impressive 12-win mark.  However, I look for Cincinnati to struggle early, getting used to several new bodies in the starting lineup.  The Bengals perfect 8-0 ATS mark on the road last season is mighty impressive and you’re certain to be drawing live when Marvin Lewis is coaching in the regular season.  However, I think they’ll have their hands full in this contest.  In a game that seems to me to be a PICK, I’ll take the +120 price and take a coin flip.

 

NEW ORLEANS -1.5 vs. OAKLAND (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 [BEST BET]

It’s excruciating to pull the trigger and bet on that nightmare of a New Orleans defense.  Still, I’m counting on the fact that this 7-9 team from last season can’t possibly be any worse defensively than in 2015, so there’s only one direction to go –which is to improve.  Of course, the Saints know this and have spent most of the last six month trying to put in the fixes.  However, Oakland’s defense was almost as bad.  I’ll take a rested and ready Drew Brees and company over an up-and-coming Carr offense that might be getting a bit too much credit.  Moreover, New Orleans also lost their home field intimidation factor last year, and were downright awful in the Superdome many weeks.  Surely, that’s provided some extra motivation for Sean Payton to drive his players, who should be ready to make a statement in this opener, reclaiming what used to be one of the strongest home field advantages.  It’s rare to see New Orleans in what amounts close to a pick’em situation inside the home dome.  Me thinks the Raiders are getting a bit too much credit here and the Saints offense is still explosive enough to cause all sorts of problems for the Oakland secondary.  This line should probably be -3 (or higher).  Give me the bargain priced team with a better head coach and an offense capable of scoring 40 points in any game.

 

CHICAGO +5.5 at HOUSTON (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 

Bettors are overreacting to misperception here and I’m thrilled to bet on the smelly pig.  We all know how QB Jay Cutler self-destructs.  What many bettors might not realize is Cutler is coming off one of his best season’s statistically.  I don’t think this is an accident.  Head coach John Fox is just the right leader to maintain some measure of control over Cutler, and the Bears.  Moreover, Chicago will be loaded at the receiver position, which bodes well for Cutler moving the ball well.  On the other side, free agent Brock Osweiler hasn’t taken a snap in Houston yet, and still the Texans are laying more points here than in any game since 2014.  They were destroyed in the last home game they played, which isn’t just indicative of their quarterback questions.  This is a team with lots of question marks, including a back injury and off-season surgery to their best player (J.J. Watt, who is probable as a starter).  Houston stumbled their way to a 9-7 record and a playoff birth by virtue of playing in a horrendous division last season.  This is an average team at best, played against another average team.  Even with the Texans as the home team, laying 5.5 is way too many points with an unproven offense.  By the way, Osweiler is going to find out it was easier to play for the Broncos and look good each week when surrounded by talent as opposed to what he’ll likely experience in Houston, especially early on in the season.

 

JACKSONVILLE MONEY LINE +200 — Risking $200 to win $400

Note:  I capped this game previously.  The full write up can be read at 2BET.  Here’s part of that write-up:

The spread crossed a key number in NFL betting (4).  This now makes the Jaguars, home underdogs who are forecast by many to show dramatic improvement this season, into a tempting play.  There’s been little or no movement on the betting total, which has hung around 48 all summer.

Green Bay is loaded, especially on offense. They have one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL (Aaron Rodgers) and plenty of “go to” receivers, including game breaker WR Jordy Nelson, who returns to the starting lineup after missing the entire 2015 season. Green Bay should be one of the most prolific passing offenses in the game.  That doesn’t bode well for Jacksonville, which ranked #29 in pass defense last season.

The Packers aren’t nearly as strong with their rushing attack, which struggled badly last season (RB Eddie Lacy will try and return to his level of production in ‘’13 and ’14 when he rushed for 1,000-plus yards.).  Look for OC Edgar Bennett to test the Jags up front with more rushes than we’ve become accustomed to seeing from the Packers over the past season, since it will be essential for them to diversify the offense away from all the pressure on Rodgers’ arm and establish a solid rushing attack.

Defensively, the Packers should have their hands full with the Jaguars passing game, which is acknowledged as a serious threat.  The Packers were very average defensively, last season.  They were particularly horrid against the run, where they allowed the #29-ranked figure in yards-per-carry. A ccordingly, look for the Jags to also go to the run more, hoping to exploit this perceived weakness in the Packers’ defense.

Jacksonville enters this year with greater optimism than any season in a long time. This is head coach Gus Bradley’s make it-or break it year, after three consecutive season of poor (but improving) results, during which the hapless Jaguars have won just 12 games. No doubt, the Jags have circled this opener as a major “statement” game. If they were to upset the Packers, one of the NFL’s best teams, that would be a major step forward and could instill even greater confidence to a team that hasn’t produced a winner in a decade.

Jacksonville’s strength is its passing game. It might surprise many to know that QB Blake Bortles ranked second in the NFL last season (behind Tom Brady) in touchdown passes. He’s got one of the best receiving corps in the league, which should give the Packers fits in the secondary.

That said, the Jaguars deficiencies are almost everywhere else.  The offensive line remains inconsistent.  If they can’t stop the Packers’ pass rush, it could be a long afternoon for Bortles and the offense.  It will be essential for the OL to establish some kind of running game and pass protect.  If they can show some improvement from the poor results from last season, Jacksonville will be primed to pull off an upset.

However, Jacksonville has been a disappointing home dog during the Bradley era, where they have gone just 6-15-1 against the number. To be fair, those results came with some very bad Jaguar teams.  However, it bears noting this has not been a good spot historically for the home dog.  Meanwhile, within that same time frame, Mike McCarthy’s bunch has covered more often than not, going 12-9 to the number.  They also come into this game healthier than in many previous match-ups, which makes them even more attractive.

In a somewhat similar situation last season, the Packers opened as -6 favorites at Chicago, which had some parallel match-up data to the Jags (solid passing game, weak defense, natural grass field, etc.).  The Packers barely covered that number, winning by 8.  The prior two road openers in ’13 and ‘14, Green Bay lost outright and failed to cover in both.

The Bottom Line: This appears to be a classic case of recreational bettors (mostly on the Packers) versus professional cappers (many on the Jaguars).  It’s probably a wager on the Jaguars as home dogs, or no bet at this point.  If you got the Packers at -3.5, then that’s a solid bet right now based on the line move.  However, to now pull the trigger on the road favorite after it’s moved across the key number of 4 would be an amateur move.  If you believe the hype in Jacksonville is real, then a bet on the Jags is probably in order.

As for me, I’d prefer to take a wait and see approach. I  expect the Jags will improve (I have them forecast at 9-7 this season).  However, for those with strong intestinal fortitude, strongly consider a wager on the Jaguars on the money line, which is now up to +200.  Getting back 2-1 on a prop that has a fair number of variables working in favor does have some value.  Under no circumstances would ever I lay -220 on the road favorite in this spot.  Since this betting total is higher than average, it’s also somewhat less likely the 4.5 spread will come into play.  Hence, if you believe the Jaguars could stick around in this game and pull off what would be their biggest home win in six seasons, then the money line is the way to go.  I think it’s worth a flyer.

 

MIAMI / SEATTLE UNDER 44 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300 [BEST BET]

MIAMI +10.5 at SEATTLE (-110) — Risking $110 to win $100

Seattle’s offensive line is a mess.  And, Miami might not score based on the Seahawks’ ability to completely shut down opposing teams in the Pacific Northwest.  The Dolphins certainly won’t score many.  For this reason, I’m playing the UNDER along with the dog and hoping for an ugly 23-13 type of game.  It’s hard to see where the points will come from by either team.  Seattle lost two OL starters before game day and were banged up in the front five last season.  QB Russell Wilson can make plays with this feet and therefore, bad OL play doesn’t impact Seattle as much as most teams.  However, I see a sluggish start to the season for Seattle, which despite being a Super Bowl contender has lost 3 of last 5 openers.  Miami’s OL troubles are even worse.  Ryan Tannehill has been the most sacked QB in the league over the last four seasons.  Things won’t get much easier playing on the road against one of the league’s best defenses.  Add these intangibles along with the Dolphins absorbing an entirely new system and schemes and now going into one of the most hostile NFL stadiums shouldn’t translate into many points.  However, taking the points with the dog and playing UNDER a point total which is slightly higher than average appear to be solid bets, with more money going on the total.

 

NY GIANTS (PICK) at DALLAS (-110) — Risking $220 to win $200

These two teams often get into shootouts in Dallas.  However, things changed in a big way when QB Tony Romo went down to injury.  Backup rookie Dak Prescott is a nice feel good story.  It’s hard not to root for him after we watched him surprise everyone and play with so much heart in preseason.  However, this is now a major step up in class, and I expect the rookie will struggle.  Dallas head coach Jason Garrett also has a blistering 10-22-1 ATS record at home, which is the NFL’s worst results.  Meanwhile, a revamped NY Giant coaching staff and defense, in addition to the Manning-Beckham-Cruz trio gives me enough confidence to take the visiting Giants, who are just more well-rounded at this point, especially with Romo’s injury.  Cowboys will also start rookie top draft pick at RB, which might not be as critical in terms of experience.  But I’ll fade the prospects he has a big first game, even with a great offensive line.  Important motivational note:  We saw how Dallas was deflated after Romo went down last season.  The team could crumble again.

 

NEW ENGLAND / ARIZONA UNDER 45.5 (-110) — Risking $330 to win $300

Intriguing match up for great coaches.  Obviously, the biggest factor is QB Brady’s suspension, which means he’s out for the first four games, including this contest in Phoenix.  I wasn’t at all impressed with Brady’s backup in preseason.  Now, there’s a possibility that all-world TE Rob Gronkowski will either not play or not be at full speed.  If that happens, it’s hard to see how the Patriots offense will function.  Surely Bill Belichick has thought these things through.  He’s undoubtedly got a game plan.  However, playing in one of the toughest away stadiums, in the dry heat, without potentially two All-Pros in the starting lineup should be reason to try and keep this a low scoring and physical game if the visiting dogs are to have any chance for an upset.  Meanwhile, Arizona is certainly explosive.  But they will face one of the better NFL defenses here.  Had Brady started, this total probably would have been 51.  Its moved nearly a touchdown.  Brady is one of the few players in the league where that line adjustment might not be enough.  Looking for a 27-13 less than exciting sleeper here and one of the week’s least exciting games.

 

LATE ADDITION:  BALTIMORE MONEY LINE -170 — Risking $340 to win $200

Write-up HERE.

 

__________

DENVER +3 (-110) — $220 to win $200 ….. winner

CAROLINA/DENVER OVER 40.1 (-110) — $220 to win $200 ….. winner

DENVER MONEYLINE +145 — $200 to win $290 ….. winner

 

1 Comment

  1. As you might guess, someone who takes the bus to play in the Main Event wagers smaller per game than you do. I let them juice me down so my wagers are $10.00 to win $9.09 etc. My 4 year totals
    2012 +181.28 – 2013 (248.77) – 2014 +307.72 – 2015 (240.28) for a grand total of (0.05). How else could I have 4 years of excruciating fun for a nickel? Keep up the good work.

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