Voting began in several states today. Here are some early thoughts about the mid-term election and many of the most closely-watched races in the U.S. Senate:
– Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives. If they don’t, then something sinister absolutely happened — which I don’t rule out as a dangerous possibility. Even top Republican officials acknowledge the question isn’t *if* Democrats will pick up seats. Rather, it’s how many. A “Blue Wave” would be encouraging, though I’m skeptical that curtails the dysfunctional madness we’re witnessing daily in the White House.
– I won’t make any public predictions about control of the Senate, though I suspect Democrats may come up just short of control…perhaps 49 seats or maybe 50 (which means the VP casts all tie-breakers, if Senators vote strictly along party lines–and we also see some breaking ranks such as Sen. Fetterman, which already creates a problem in the next session). Democrats will do historically well in many races, and even cut it close in Red States. However, the gambler in me knows that it’s very difficult to “run the table” in the close battles, and that’s what Democrats must do to win.
– Many Republican candidates are atrocious. Scandal-plagued, personality-starved Ken Paxton (TX) might be as awful a Senate nominee as there’s been in the modern era–and that’s what many *Republicans* are saying about him. Observing the warbling waffle-iron Susan Collins (ME) is cringeworthy. Roger Marshall (KS), the dirty sue-happy doctor represents everything gone horribly wrong with our for-profit health care system. True to his last name, Sen. Pete Ricketts (NE) represents a prolonged deficiency of leadership. Lady Lindsey’s sister-brood Darline Graham (SC) can’t find Russia if you gave her a map of Russia. And the drawling old ball coach Tommy Tuberville (AL) guarantees that even if Paxton wins, his rung at the bottom of the intelligence ranking is set for life. What’s most frightening? All of them might win!
– The objective aspiring political analyst in me admits several Democratic candidates are weak, and a few are downright terrible. The only thing that saves Troy Jackson (ME) from being credential-checked onstage by security is that he’s fortunate enough to be debating Susan Collins, which makes him look like Mick Jagger, by comparison. This guy is dud, and frankly–not very versed on the issues. Of course, Maine might determine control of the Senate and the fate of Western Civilization, so there’s that.
– As for the good and the great, there’s Sen. Jon Ossof in Georgia. He’s almost certain to win and his rise has helped to make Georgia perhaps the most progressive Southern state (no jokes please). It helps that Ossof can speak like he knows what he’s talking about and is running against the Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan. Georgia has become quite a state for political junkies given all the moving parts — Republicans changing parties, two Democratic Senators, and even former wing-bat Marjorie Taylor Green has made MAGA cultists red in the face with her constant Trump-bashing. The one annoying takeaway from the GA senate race I didn’t like was hearing Sen. Ossof pledge NOT to run for President in 2028. He’s exactly what the party needs right now as a national leader.
– I was sorry to see Sen. Ed Markey (MA) run for re-election. He’s certain to win, but he’s 80. Nothing against Markey or his legislative record, let’s foster in a more appealing youth movement. This goes for everyone, even Sen. Bernie Sanders, who I admire and agree with 95 percent of the time (Sanders isn’t up for election this year). There are some other races where I wish Democrats would have passed the leadership mantel on to a new generation. I expect this to be a huge issue in 2028, especially if Sen. Schumer runs for re-election (NY) — and here’s some heads-up advice…… DON’T !!!
– The crown jewel for Democrats is — Texas. The red ruby for Republicans is — Michigan. Both races are near toss-ups. I admire the campaign and race candidate James Talarico has run. There are some things I’d prefer he didn’t do, but he’s made this into a competitive race, and is up by a few points in some polls. It helps that his opponent is so atrocious. I suspect he’d lose if incumbent Sen. John Cornyn was the Republican opponent. But facts are, Talarico would be ripped apart and lied about no matter who’s running — you even got the mascara-addicted vice president basically saying Democrat is molesting young boys in park restrooms, but at least the sofa is safe. It’s just a matter of turnout as to whether Blue cities Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso can run up the numbers for the Democrats. Drive 20 miles outside of any Blue Texas city, and things turn into 1961 Mississippi Burning laced with Q-Anon quacks wearing cowboys hats while waving a Bible with a set of giant truck tires costing more than the vehicle. Seriously, this is the mentality of the Texas conservative.
– In the Michigan race, I love the positions and approaches Abdul El-Sayed has taken. Tough, straightforward, fresh, energetic — he’s exactly what the Democratic Party needs as a new voice (in much the same manner Mayor Zohran Mamdani has shaken up politics NYC). However, I don’t think he’ll win. The baggage is just too heavy. It’s plausible for leftists to win in smaller races with limited demographics (such as congressional races, big cities-which are overwhelmingly liberal). It’s much tougher in a sizable swing state with a diverse demographic like Michigan. If El-Sayed wins the Michigan race, it will be a huge night for Democrats across the country.
– Finally, I don’t trust polls. I’m glad they’re still around, but the methodology has become highly questionable. Many say Republicans are underrepresented in polls. Others claim land-lines are too heavily factored into phone polling, which skews towards older voters. FWIW, I used to partake in polls all the time. Now, I just hang up on them when they call. Recently, a number I didn’t recognize called me and I spewed a filthy profanity and told them never to call me again, but then the poor lady on the other end said it was just confirming my dermatology appointment. Sorry about that — about this annoying rash….. There’s the 2016 and 2024 presidential races to remember, which were embarrassing for both the pollsters and mainstream media prediction people. Speaking of “predictors,” let’s see how the prediction markets (gambling) do this year.
– And a final, final word about election honesty and integrity: I don’t know. I can’t offer any credible assessment, but I’m concerned. I’ll write more about this next time, when I share some thoughts on the other mid-term races.
Oh, and here’s an old picture of when I worked in the Senate (1985) with two congressional Republicans! My street cred.