I’m not what you’d call a baseball fan. Hell, I don’t even like baseball.
However, I do bet on baseball games. I bet on lots of baseball games.
Having no rooting interest in any of the major league teams — nor any desire to watch games, either in person or on television — this somehow keeps me on a much more even keel emotionally than watching pro football, which for me is a severe mental and emotional strain. Yes, I’ll admit to having serious difficulty dealing with adversity when betting on football. That’s because so much of the final outcome depends on motivation and is influenced by mistakes…a fumble here, an interception there. By comparison, I have much less of a “tilt factor” when betting on baseball games, because fundamentally it’s a sport predicated on two things — (1) statistics and (2) percentages. Remaining dispassionate about baseball comes easy because I don’t give a shit about any of the teams, except that I usually cheer against any team from New York, Boston, or Los Angeles. I simply make my wagers, then check the final scores at the end of the night. If only the rest of life were that simple.
That said, this week has been an emotional and financial roller coaster. For the first time, I’ve decided to chronicle my wins and losses over several days. Hopefully, those of you who bet on sports will enjoy the ride.
Matt Lessinger’s picks are a perfect 10-0 during the last year I have posted his write ups. That’s right, ten wins and zero losses — including a few dogs. This also includes a 10-1 shot with a Grammy winner.
If you don’t know Matt Lessinger’s name or reputation by now, then do your own homework, or get out from under that rock you’re living under. We’re way past that point where I make introductions. Look HERE (Grammys) and HERE (Merryweather) and HERE (Porter).
Matt Lessinger has just posted another interesting write-up on handicapping this weekend’s boxing. As I always say, I’m not encouraging anyone to bet these picks. But many of you who do bet should find his analysis spot on. Here’s his report, verbatim:
Well, tonight I’m giving it away. For. Fucking. Free.
You can thank me later.
Let me ask you all something. Can you keep a secret? Don’t bullshit me. I mean — if I share something with you, will you promise to keep this in total confidence? You can’t be out there blabbering that you have the inside info because that’s my domain. Do not tread on me.
Tonight’s absurdly overhyped championship fight doesn’t interest me in the last, except as an opportunity to make money, and I expect to make a few easy dollars sitting around and doing nothing, a skill I’ve pretty much mastered at this stage of my life.
Normally, big spectacles like this don’t offer much in the way of betting value for serious gamblers. Why not?
Well first off, there’s no such thing as “inside information” or finding a pick that’s “under the radar,” as one might uncover in a far more obscure sporting contests. Second, the gargantuan sums of money bet on this fight worldwide have pretty much hammered the numbers into place, exactly where they should be. Face it, most of us lack any really useful information that the rest of the world doesn’t already have, so there’s really no such thing as “wise guy” action. Third, just about everything these two fighters do is covered to the max by the media. We know what they eat for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. If one of the boxers sneezes, it’s ticker-streamed across ESPN. Fourth, the house take on many props is ridiculous, and frankly prohibitive. Some sportsbooks are holding a whopping 25-35 percent on various props, making them terrible bets no matter what we think will happen. Finally, given boxing’s horrid reputation for corruption, some baffling scoring decisions in past fights, and the gargantuan profits going into lots of pockets, there’s always the chance a win-by-decision could be influenced which will intentionally rig a mandatory re-match, where all the greedy paws of this filthy “sport” can double dip into the golden well for more mega-millions.
But, I’m going off on a tangent. Back to how we can maximize our own greediness and squeeze out a profit.
Matt Lessinger is one of the most trusted gamblers and wagering analysts I know. He’s solid. I don’t need an explanation when I’m told Lessinger has taken a position on a game or an event. I can be confident that the work’s already been done and he’s on the right side.
This doesn’t mean he always wins, or course. It just means he’s made a solid wager based on getting the very best value most of the time. Ideally, that’s all you can hope for when you engage in sports wagering or in the case of what I’m about to discuss — wagering on popular events.