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Posted by on Feb 4, 2017 in Blog, Essays, Las Vegas, Sports Betting | 3 comments

My Super Bowl Wager

 

 

In the Super Bowl, I’m betting $1,600. to win back $1,454. on the UNDER 59.

This is the highest betting total in Super Bowl history.  Fifty championship games have been played since 1967, with some of the best offenses of all-time.  Yet no betting total has ever been this high.  All things considered, the value looks to be with the UNDER 59.

The public appears to be betting the OVER in droves.  The total opened at 57.5 in many sports books (YMMV), then went up to 58.  All around Las Vegas today (eve of the Super Bowl), there were lots of 58 and 58.5 numbers frozen in place.  Many people I spoke with expected the betting public might continue to chisel the number steadily upward, but enough sharp money should have resisted the total going too much higher than where it’s stabilized over the past 12 days.  When I suddenly saw a 59 flash at Red Rock (Stations) today, I pounced and made this a larger-than-average wager.

Of course, betting against a tidal wave is tricky.  There’s some evidence this total could climb higher.  In that case, I could be sitting on a stale number by tomorrow afternoon.  This is always the risk on takes when betting as a contrarian.  I’ll feel pretty awful if this total closes at 60 and I’m sitting here holding the shit basket.

There’s also some value in the UNDER 29.5 First Half Total.  However, I’ll hope the extra 30 minute time frame will reduce variance (two halves at 29.5 each) and the ticket will get cashed.  I did want to note the First Half Total does look to be equally as tempting.

For this ticket to lose, 60-plus points will need to be scored.  That’s 30 points per team.  Many Super Bowls have turned into routs, of course, which is always the danger here in the big game.  If one team jumps to a big lead, the ball starts flying all over the field and crazy stuff happens.  However, recent Super Bowl games have played at a more modest pace and points haven’t lit up the score board.

The intangible in this game should be the Patriots’ defense.  If they come to play, it’s probably a win and easy cover and the UNDER cashes.  I greatly respect Bill Belichick’s abilities as a head coach (that should go without saying, although his politics are fuck).  But New England has also be a dreadful Super Bowl favorite under his reign, as the Patriots have failed to cover in most games.  That brings up the old saying — Good teams win, but great teams cover.  Remember that, Patriot fans.

I began posting NFL plays publicly on the internet about 20 years ago.  I’ve posted thousands of plays over that long span.  Since I’ve started writing on my own here at my own site, I’ve enjoyed 3 winning seasons and 1 losing season.  This year, my winnings were pretty modest — just $1,384 in profit spread out over 17 weeks (or 13.8 percent in profit).  Most of the winnings game from betting teaser wheels.  I’ve not handicapped the NFL particularly well in recent years.  However, I’ve somehow managed to still make money both in 2015 and 2016.  There’s no pretending here.  However, given all the talk and trash that’s floating out there (touts), I’m pretty proud of being ahead overall after thousands of NFL plays posted at my site.

Accordingly, I could rest on my mini-laurels and wrap up another winning season by betting small.  It would be easy to run out the clock and declare victory.   However, I won’t play it safe here.  I’m risking the prospect of a losing season overall by wagering $1,600 on this game.  Hence, I could end up in the red for the year (regarding posted plays here — not counted are hundreds of wagers such as halftimes and so forth which do not get posted because there’s no time).  However, I really like this UNDER play and if it hits, I’ll end up $3,000 to the good for the season, which is a return of about 30 percent.

Best wishes to everyone.  Thanks for reading.

SIDE NOTE:  Look for my continuing series on “Gambling for a Living,” coming up next week.  I have several more chapters to write, which will include a recap of this year’s NFL regular season.

________________________________________

2016 NFL SEASON RECORD

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $11,384.

NET GAIN/LOSS:   + $1,384.

LAST WEEK:  (7-8-1)  – $360.

________________________________________

 

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Posted by on Jan 1, 2017 in Blog | 0 comments

2016 NFL Regular Season: Week #17

 

 

Today marks the end of the 2016 NFL regular season.  I’ll be cheering for 16 boring, low-scoring football games.

Give me a shitload of sacks.  Give me a bunch of fumbles and interceptions.  Give me a slew of incomplete passes.  Give me plenty holding penalties.  Give me missed field goals.  Give me down after down of one-yard-gains and a pile of dust.  Give me a heaping pile of gridiron garbage that falls UNDER the betting total.  Give me games where the stars are the punters.  I don’t want scoring.  I want grotesque ugliness on a grand scale.  For UNDER bettors, boredom is beautiful, baby.

This final NFL weekend, I’m betting every game to go UNDER the total.

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Posted by on Dec 24, 2016 in Blog, Essays | 1 comment

2016 NFL Regular Season: Week #16

 

steelersoffensiveline1

 

Thanks to Dr. Arthur Reber for his fine article this past week on the pros and cons of betting the NFL teaser wheel.  Read his excellent analysis of my invention HERE.

Last week, the teaser wheel produced a solid profit going 16 wins and 4 losses for a net win of $2,240.  With two weeks remaining in the regular season, there’s still time to make a few more bucks with the system for a nice holiday stocking stuffer.

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Posted by on Dec 18, 2016 in Blog, Essays | 1 comment

2016 NFL Regular Season: Week #15

 

Atlanta Falcons offense, including center Todd McClure (62) and quarterback Matt Ryan (2), set at the line of scrimmage during a NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, December 12, 2010 in Charlotte, NC. The Falcons won the game 31-10. (AP Photo/Paul Jasienski)

 

My teaser wheel crashed and burned last week, resulting in an ugly 0-16 run.

This mandates a double up on the teaser wheel this week, in order to ensure a profit.

However, I don’t see many games which fit the classic mold of the teaser, which is picking up the key betting numbers (3, 4, 6, 7).  Many of this week’s games do appear to be quite competitive, which should produce lots of middles so long as we can correctly identify the best hub team.

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Posted by on Dec 11, 2016 in Blog, Essays | 2 comments

2016 NFL Regular Season: Week #14

 

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) throws during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Kansas City Chiefs Saturday, Jan. 4, 2014, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

 

With a Little Luck (We Can Work It Out)….

Last week, the teaser wheel spun off course, losing a small amount (-$180).  This was highly unusual for the hub team (Green Bay) to win and cover, while the remainder of my teams failed to win enough to produce a profit.  In the numerous times I’ve used the teaser wheel over the years, I don’t ever recall losing money any single week — unless the hub team failed to cover.  Last weekend’s array of lopsided games killed the entire purpose of betting the teaser wheel, which is to try and middle as many games as possible in a league of parity.  Instead, I mistakenly picked several teams which posted terrible performances (Miami, New Orleans, Carolina, Buffalo, Philadelphia, etc.) failed to show up and play competitive games.

Nonetheless, I’m still ahead for the season as we enter the final month of the season.

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