NFL Plays — Week 9
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED SEASON RECORD
43 WINS - 38 LOSSES - 2 PUSHES —– (+ 7.55 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,755.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 5-3-0
Coming off my worst week of the season, going 3 wins and 6 losses for a net loss of -8.2 units. My overall record remains in the black in all categories, but need to improve. Looking to turn things around in Week 9 in what looks to be the best lineup of games I have seen all season. Great slate full of live home dogs.
Making 16 bets (season high) and wagering $8,000 (season high).
Note: All wagers are for amusement-purposes only. I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.
NFL WEEK 9 PLAYS:
CINCINNATI +3.5 vs. DENVER (-110) — for 5 units
Very live home dog here…..not sure that DENVER deserves the road favorite role, especially by more than a FG…..I’d line this much closer to pick’em…..CINCY is 3-4 playing a 4-3 opponent (1-2 on the road), which tells me the visitor is just one game better in the win column, certainly not worthy of being a -6.5 choice on a neutral field (adding the customary 3 to the equation for home field). Number just looks flat out wrong, combined with nice contrarian angle as betting public is convinced one team is peaking and the other is falling….but as we know, NFL results are hardly linear.
JACKSONVILLE +4.5 vs. DETROIT (-110) — for 4 units
Two pigs play in this matchup, so I’ll take the home dog getting what appears to be too many points….DETROIT has been an absolute joke this season….regressing from last year’s 6-2 mark at this stage of the season to one of the year’s biggest disappointments….offense looks lost at times, with WR Johnson only at one TD so far….QB Stafford inexplicably absent first 58 minutes of most games…..something is seriously wrong with Lions, and I’ll gladly fade these frauds as a road favorite…..not much to like about JAX record wise, but this team did play two very feisty games on the road their last two games — a last second loss at OAK and a very competitive cover at GB that was much closer than the score indicated….that tells me JAX is still fighting and now back home, I think they give a solid effort…..Should be a close game, so I will take the points with the team that appears to be playing a little more consistently at the moment.
TENNESSEE +3.5 vs. CHICAGO (-110) — for 5 units
Titans have been a terrible road team but have performed well at home…2-2 at home including an OT loss last week….I think the stay at home another week angle really helps the live dog here, especially hosting a team that doesn’t quite deserve the accolades of its 6-1 record, largely the result of a very soft schedule. Titans are 3-5 and can stay in the playoff hunt with a victory…..more than enough talent on this team to keep this game close, especially as Bears offense has struggled to score points last few weeks (against two lousy defenses — CAR and DET)……Stat of the game — TENN weakness is pass defense but CHI ranks 30th in passing offense…..I see this as a close game and very possible upset.
PITTSBURGH +3.5 vs. NY GIANTS (-110) — for 3 units
Game is probably lined about right, but I’ll take the road team getting the hook on the FG in a game that most will admit could go either way….NYG coming off big divisional road win at WASH which is sometimes a good fade in next game….also think the East Coast storm aftermath could be a distraction for home team in this week’s preparation.
TAMPA / OAKLAND OVER 46.5 (-110) — for 3 units
Both teams have transformed themselves into OVER teams, with TAMPA clearly turning the corner in recent weeks as a team capable of moving the ball and scoring….OAK also putting up more points since they abandoned the OC’s early-season conservative game plans….two improving offenses and weak defenses combine for what should be an entertaining game that exceeds this number. No play at 47, but I see enough value inside the number to go OVER.
PHILADELPHIA / NEW ORLEANS UNDER 52 (-110) — for 3 units
It’s difficult to figure out which unit is the least trustworthy — the NOR defense or the PHILA’s offense. Combined with some diminishing numbers by NOR offense in recent weeks (big plays seem to have disappeared), this looks to be too high a total., even for a MFN dome game Saints’ WRs are not making plays and PHILA has demonstrated absolutely no ability to put up points of any consequence, which would indicate an OVER. It’s also a must win game for both teams which I think plays into a ball control game that should hit the 40s, but not match the customary shootout that NOR home games have been in recent years. Even assuming the Saints hit 31, I’m not totally convinced PHILA will go over the 22, needed to bust the total.
FIRST HALF: BUFFALO +7 vs. HOUSTON (-110) — for 4 units
HOUSTON still not performing consistently enough to lay a full TD in a game versus an offense capable of putting up points. I’ll take the touchdown with the hope that HOU gets off to a slow start.
TEASER: GREEN BAY -4 / MINNESOTA +10.5 (-110) — for 6 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>
Packers play an ARIZONA team that simply looks incapable of scoring points…..hard to see ARIZONA solving all their offensive problems in in a short travel week, after getting thrashed on MNF versus their division rival at home….GB had a scare last week, but has won three straight and looks primed for a blowout here. / Meanwhile, MINN coming off ten days rest (and a loss) and clearly capable of keeping things close at SEA…..hard to see SEA blowing anyone out, especially a winning team……I like the generous points here at more than double digits with the live dog.
1Q: CINCINNATI + .5 (-125) for 3 units
1Q: INDIANAPOLIS + .5 (-140) for 3 units
1Q: BUFFALO +3 (-105) for 3 units
1Q: JAX + .5 (-120) for 4 units
1Q: TENN + .5 (-120) for 4 units
1Q: TAMPA + .5 (-145) for 3 units
1Q: MINNESOTA / SEATTLE OVER 7 (-130) for 4 units
1Q: DALLAS / ATLANTA OVER 9.5 (-115) for 3 units
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:
JACKSONVILLE / GREEN BAY UNDER 47 (-110) — for 4 units…..WON
PITTSBURGH / WASHINGTON OVER 46 (-110) — for 3 units….LOST
SAN FRANCISCO / ARIZONA OVER 38.5 (-110) — for 3 units....LOST
CLEVELAND +1 vs. SAN DIEGO (+115) — for 3 units….WON
PHILADELPHIA -1 vs. ATLANTA (-110) — for 3 units….LOST
TEASER: GREEN BAY -8 / MIAMI + 7.5 (-110) — for 5 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>….WON
1Q: INDY / TENN OVER 9.5 (-125) — for 2 units….LOST
1Q: WASHINGTON + .5 vs. PITTSBURGH (-120) — for 3 units….LOST
1Q: NEW ORLEANS vs. DENVER +.5 (-110) — for 4 units….LOST