NFL Plays: Week 17

 

NOLAN DALLA:  2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD

83 WINS – 83 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (- 12.05 units / 1 unit = $100)

STARTING BANKROLL:  $10,000.

CURRENT BANKROLL:  $8,795.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK:  11-5-0

Comments:  Let’s just say that I know exactly how football legend Y.A. Title feels (see photo above).  My handicapping record has been reduced to the results one would expect from flipping a coin.  Indeed, this has been one of the strangest seasons I’ve ever experienced as a sports bettor.  The good — I’ve been in the black since Week 2, at least until last Sunday.  The season’s high point was after Week 11, when I was ahead +78 units.  The bad — I’m on brutal cold streak.  Now, after a terrible two-month run and losing an average of 20 units a week, I need to close with a few winners to lock up a season in the black.  Here it goes….

THIS WEEK’S WAGERS:

PITTSBURGH -.6.5 vs. CLEVELAND (-110) — for 10 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK>

It should be noted that at the time of this posting, the PITT/CLEVE game is off the board.  Reason is, there’s talk the Browns will start a third-string QB (Thad Lewis), a sure sign this is a game that’s not being taken as seriously as previous weeks.  After a nice late season run during which the Browns reeled off several covers, everything fell apart at Denver last week, as the Browns were blown out.  Earlier this week, it was announced the Browns are completely revamping the front office and (likely) the coaching staff.  Cleveland media now reporting this will be head coach’s final game.  This has to kill the Browns’ preparation.  Add the best player RB Tent Richardson out with injury, and this should be an easy Steeler win.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has lost two close games in a row, but still has a chance to get to .500.  If reports out of Pittsburgh are correct, this is actually a motivator for the Steelers.  No doubt, this has been a disappointing season.  But here’s a chance to end the season on a high note.  There’s no dissention on the sidelines in Pittsburgh, and that should be the difference here.  Lay up to -7 with confidence.  IMPORTANT:  Check weather updates for this game.  If winds are gusting then I’d reduce the size of the wager.  Snow is froecast, but that won’t hurt the Steelers.  But a 40 mph crosswind would kill Pittsburgh’s advantages at QB (for purposes of record-keeping, I will stick with the wager — but beware of weather if you decide to play Steelers heavy.)

 

INDIANAPOLIS +7 vs HOUSTON (-110) — for 6 units

I’ll take the team that appears to be on a mission, playing at home, with head coach Chuck Pagano coming back to the sidelines.  Colts are the feel good story of the season and I’ll gladly jump on them with added motivation.  Meanwhile, Houston has looked terrible in a few recent games — getting hammered by both New England and Minnesota.  I’ll say it here and now — Houston is a fraud.  Look for a first-round upset in the playoffs.

 

DALLAS/WASHINGTON UNDER 49.5 (-110) — for 6 units

With so much on the line — a playoff spot and the NFC East title, I think both teams will play it a little closer to the vest this week.  So, I’ll take UNDER what appears to be a very hgh number.  This is the kind of total one might expect for a regular season game during mid-season, not in what is essentially a cold weather night game with playoff implications.  We saw more conservative game plans the last time these two teams played, on Thanksgiving Day.  With a night game and colder temperatures, I think the passing games will suffer (niether QB has ever shown any ability in cold weather situations).  Get this quick as the total can only go down.  It won’t go up.

 

ARIZONA/SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 38.5 (-110) — for 7 units

Fading the Cardinals horrid offense is easy.  Add that San Francisco is down to its reserves at WR, and I look for a lackluster offensive effort here by both teams.  Quite possible the Cardinals won’s score much, and I see no reason why San Francisco would run up the score when all they need to do is win what appears to be a lock game, and then rest up and get healthy for the playoffs.  And, as I have said several times, QB Kaepernick is eventually going to be exposed as a wasted draft pick.  One of the best totals plays I’ve seen all season.

 

TEASER:  PITTSBURGH -.5 /BALTIMORE +8.5 (-110) — for 7 units

Ravens should keep this one close, at least within a touchdown.  There’s not a lot at stake here, although seeding and playoff opponents will be determined by this and other outcomes.  Based on likely playoff scenarios, there’s little incentive for either team to give a lot of effort.  I see a 16-13 game either way, followed by a Bengals’ visit to Baltimore next week (probably the most likely scenario).

 

TEASER:  PITTSBURGH -.5 /INDIANAPOLIS +13 (-110) — for 5 units

See write ups above (Pittsburgh and Indianapolis)

 

TEASER:  PITTSBURGH -.5 /SEATTLE -5 (-110) — for 5 units

Fading Seattle after a huge home win last week would be a normal play for me.  But not this time, with the Seahawks playing as well as any team in the league and St. Louis now completely out of the race.  I’ll gladly tease down the playoff bound Seahawks, who are perfect at home, now laying less than a touchdown on the 6-point teaser..

 

LAST WEEK’S WAGERS:

OAKLAND / CAROLINA OVER 46.5 (-110) — for 5 units  – LOST

SEATTLE -1 vs. SAN FRANCISCO -1 (-110) — for 8 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WON

NY GIANTS / BALTIMORE OVER 47 (-115) — for 5 units — PUSH

MINNESOTA +9 vs. HOUSTON (-110) — for 4 units — WON

CLEVELAND +12.5 vs. DENVER (-110) — for 5 units — LOST

6-POINT TEASER:  BUFFALO +10.5 / SAN DIEGO + 8.5 — for 7 units — LOST

FIRST HALF — NEW ORLEANS +.5 vs. DALLAS (-110) — for 5 units — WON

FIRST HALF — CLEVELAND +7.5 (-120) vs. DENVER — for 7 units — LOST

FIRST HALF – SAN DIEGO +.5 (-110) vs. NY JETS — for 5 units — LOST