NFL Plays — Week 12
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 POSTED NFL SEASON RECORD
69 WINS – 54 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES —– (+ 75.85 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $17,585.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 9-3-0
On Thursday, I posted two wins and one loss, for a net gain of +7.7 units. Once again, it’s a positive sign we’re winning the large-unit games.
Last week’s record was 5 wins and 4 losses. Most important, the net gain was +9.3 units.
If there’s one thing I’ve improved this season over the last many years I’ve been posting plays at various public forums (which started in 1997), it’s been with weighing picks and better money management.
It took me many many years to realize that flat betting gives way too much away when there are stronger than average plays on the board. Moreover, a pick may be worth playing, but for a smaller amount based on the line or total. Hence, I strongly recommend varying your bet sizes. I have more work to do and much more to learn in this area. But I do want to say that if you only get half your picks right, but weigh the games accurately, you might still be able to produce a nice profit.
Here are Sunday’s plays (11 wagers).
Note: All wagers are for amusement-purposes only. I bear no responsibility for those who may decide to follow my plays.
CLEVELAND +1 vs. PITTSBURGH (-110) — for 4 units
This is more of an “against” Pittsburgh play, although there are some good reasons to like the Browns. Steelers limp wounded into this game following two disappointing home performances and are now reeling with injuries at key positions. Meanwhile, Browns put up a solid fight in Dallas last week (two horrific calls on the final drive in regulation gave Dallas a tie, which led to an OT win). Unlike other losing NFL teams, Cleveland still appears to be fighting hard and now catches its division rival in as weak a state as we’ve seen, which should be a major motivator. I’ll take the live home dog here which is healthy and has enough offensive talent to compete against an offensive unit which has not played together all season.
NEW ORLEANS +1 vs. SAN FRANCISCO (-110) — for 4 units
Saints are back to the .500 mark after an awful 0-4 start, and clearly have more motivation in this game with a brutal schedule ahead. Indeed, every game is now critical for Saints which are not going to take this opponent lightly. As much as one has to respect San Francisco, especially on defense, they’ve faced a pretty soft schedule (last three games — Arizona, St. Louis, and Chicago — minus Cutler). This is a major step up in class especially going on the road. 49ers are now essentially playing for best record in the NFC since they will most assuredly win the division. With a QB controversy potentially brewing in San Francisco once Smith returns, I’m going with a united and desperate home team that’s starting to play with a bit more consistency. Obviously, there are still concerns with New Orleans defense. But 49ers rank 28th in the NFL in passing and I’m not sure this is the team that plays to those weaknesses. I’ll take an attractive number with the more motivated home team.
BALTIMORE -1 vs. SAN DIEGO (-105) — for 2 units
Small wager on Baltimore, which is vastly superior at the moment. What keeps this wager smaller than normal is the general philosophy I have against laying points on the road — especially versus desperate teams in a cross-country travel situation. Add Chargers coming off two road losses, and Ravens coming off huge road win at Pittsburgh — which creates concerns for any handicapper. But this is a huge mismatch and I feel compelled to go against Norv Turner pretty much the rest of the season, no matter what the circumstances. It’s hard to imagine players being inspired at this point, especially coming off what was a must-win last week. Small wager on the road powerhouse, playing as well as any team in the NFL at the moment.
NEW ORLEANS / SAN FRANCISCO OVER 48.5 (-110) — for 3 units
The OVER plays well with a wager on New Orleans since we hit a key “guarantee” number for the live home dog. So long as Saints put up 24 points, or more, we can’t lose both bets. New Orleans has scored 24+ points in nine of 10 games this season — including all five games played at home. Again, credit San Francisco with having the NFCs best defense. But when you get to play Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle six times a year, that’s a recipe for padded statistics. A motivated New Orleans team in the Superdome is not Arizona starting some backup bench warmer. It’s also rare to see a total in the dome this low, so I’ll go OVER.
GREEN BAY / NY GIANTS OVER 51 (-110) — for 3 units
It’s very rare for me to go OVER any total in the 50s, but this has every indication of a shootout. Packers come in with massive defensive injuries, which should lead to a good night for Manning and Company. I also don’t see NY Giants slowing down the Packers offense, although some soft offensive line play has led to a high number of sacks. Look for both QBs to throw close to 60 times, in what could be one of the most entertaining games of the season. Especially love well-coached Giants to roll up points coming off two losses and a bye week. If you can find a team total on NY Giants anywhere at 27.5 or lower, bet this prop OVER.
1Q: CAROLINA / PHILADELPHIA OVER 7 (-130) — for 5 units
1Q: MIAMI / SEATTLE OVER 7 (-125) — for 5 units
1Q: ST. LOUIS / ARIZONA OVER 7 (EVEN) — for 5 units
1Q: ST. LOUIS + .5 vs. ARIZONA (-150) — for 4 units
1Q: GREEN BAY + .5 vs. NY GIANTS (-135) — for 3 units
1Q: OAKLAND + 3 vs. CINCINNATI (-120) — for 5 units
THURSDAY’S RESULTS: 2 wins and 1 loss and a net gain of 7.7 units
WASHINGTON +3.5 vs. DALLAS (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER
NEW ENGLAND/NY JETS UNDER 48 (-110) — for 3 units — LOSER
6-POINT TEASER: WASHINGTON +9.5 / NEW ENGLAND -1 (-110) — for 6 units — WINNER
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS: 5 wins and 4 losses and a net gain of 9.3 units
6-POINT TEASER: MIAMI +8.5 / DENVER -1.5 (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER
WASHINGTON -3.5 vs. PHILADELPHIA (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER
TAMPA -1 vs. CAROLINA (-115) — for 6 units <BEST BET OF THE WEEK> — WINNER
ST. LOUIS -3.5 vs. NY JETS (-105) — for 3 units — LOSER
CLEVELAND / DALLAS UNDER 43.5 (-110) — for 5 units — WINNER
ARIZONA/ATLANTA OVER 44 (-110) — for 4 units – LOSER
FIRST HALF: ATLANTA -6.5 vs. ARIZONA (-110) — for 4 units — LOSER
FIRST HALF: KANSAS CITY +3 vs. CINCINNATI (-115) — for 5 units — LOSER
FIRST QUARTER: NY JETS/ST. LOUIS OVER 7 (-130) — for 6 units — WINNER