My NFL Picks: Week 3
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
13 WINS – 12 LOSSES – 2 PUSHES
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $8,175.
NET GAIN/LOSS: – $1,825.
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 0–2–0
Coming off a rough week with disappointing results — 5 wins and 7 losses.
As for the entire season, despite about breaking even in wins and losses (13 wins and 12) losses, money management has buried me early, down 19 percent of original bankroll through the first two weeks. We’ll try and reverse this trend for what appears to be an attractive slate of games and an opportunity to move into the black.
One slate of wagers that has performed very well have been the late plays. While my early week plays have performed horribly, the late plays have gone something like 11-2. I think this is due to later breaking information, some extra time to process all the possible wagers, and the props and quarters only being available closer to game time. I never tell anyone to make plays based on my picks. But if anything is worth looking at for information, you may want to check out the late additions, which I post about an hour before the first slate of games on Sunday.
I’ve made 7 plays, so far. There are also two BEST BETS. Here are my preferred picks for NFL Week 3:
LATE ADDED PLAYS:
Washington/Detroit over 24 first half total -120. $240 to win 200
First quarter St Louis plus half point -135. $270 to win 200
New orleans/Arizona over 9.5 in first quarter $330 to win 300
Indianapolis + 3 in first quarter -125. $375 to win 300 . San fFrancisco has led in just one game since kaepernick became starter last season. Terrible first quarter team
6-POINT TEASER: Atlanta +8 / NY Giants +7.5 — $440 to win $400
I bet this teaser early in the week, figuring on a line move which has already happened in some places. This is the classic Wong Teaser angle, moving across the 7, 4, and 3. We capture a duo of extremely live dogs (both the better teams, in my opinion). The first pick is Atlanta, which is 1-1 but could easily be 2-0, losing a close one in the opener at New Orleans. Despite being an indoor team, Falcons have performed well outdoors historically — going 6-1 in such games on the road last year. Now, getting points, this makes them even more attractive. Way too much love on Miami, which I still don’t believe is for real. Their 2-0 record gives us some extra line value with taking the visiting dog. I presume this line would have been somewhere around Atlanta -2.5 or even -3 were it not for Miami’s strong start this season and some key injuries for Falcons (which I think will be a non-factor since Miami also has two key injuries of their own)…..The other game is probably a must win for both teams as NY Giants face Carolina, a real desperate situation for both. NY Giants are the clearly the better coached team with the superior offense. There’s even some justification for their 0-2 record as I’m not sure Giants were supposed to win either of those games. Now, facing a team they should be favored over, I see a focused effort in a step down in class situation. QB Manning could not have played worse in each of the first two games (6 ints) — and I expect a bounce back game here. Meanwhile, Carolina’s offense has been anemic, so far. I see Giant’s problems as fixable, and Panther’s problems as not enough key personnel on a weakly coached team. Clearly, getting the +7.5 is vital on the Giants. So, two strong teams are getting more than a touchdown.
6-POINT TEASER: Minnesota-1.5 / New Orleans -1 — $550 to win $500 <<<BEST BET>>>
Reverse situation from above on the Wong Teasers, which appears even stronger. Two home dome teams playing what about to be mismatched opponents. Browns start new QB this week, never a good omen for a visiting team. Vikings home opener. All the factors point to win a Vikings win here, which is what were seeking with the tease down to -1.5…..Meanwhile, we haven’t seen a breakout game by the Saints offense yet, but this appears the week where it could happen. I’ll make this a BEST BET due to talent, confidence, and intangibles all favoring the home favorites by a wide margin.
TEAM TOTAL: Atlanta OVER 21 for GAME — $220 to win $200
Falcons team total seems inexplicably low. I know RB Jackson is out, but this is the typical number you would see for a sub-par offense or a team facing a very good defense — neither of which is the case here. Obviously, catching the 21 is essential here. This would be a no play on 21.5 (or higher).
TEAM TOTAL: San Diego OVER 10 for FIRST HALF — $440 to win $400 <<<BEST BET>>>
Chargers travel for second straight game on the road but have been a fabulous first-half team so far, which shows good pre-game preparation. Nothing seems to be wrong with San Diego’s offense, so asking them to score at least 10 points seems more than reasonable. One of the BEST BETS of the week.
FIRST HALF TOTAL: San Diego/Tennessee OVER 21 — $330 to win $300
Reasonable number of points to exceed given the way these two teams have played, to date. Offenses appear to be capable of producing points, and at the very least, the Chargers defense looks soft and suspect, which should allow Titans to put up numbers, as well. I’ll go OVER a number I think should be up around 23-24.
GAME TOTAL UNDER 41: Cleveland vs. Minnesota — $330 to win $300
Another game I bet early in the week before the Richardson trade. Total has only slipped a little, down to 40.5 in some places. But you can still find 41 around. Browns start a backup QB (which could be an improvement) and come off two inept offensive performances — just 16 points in first two games. There’s little to indicate a breakout performance here, especially with QB Campbell getting his first start for a new team since leaving the Raiders. Meanwhile, look for Vikings to play this one closer to the vest because they won’t have to do much other than run the ball 30+ times. Browns defense has actually played very well this season, which should keep this from getting out of hand. Looks like a 27-13 type of game. I usually stay away from UNDERs in domes, but there’s enough factors here to expect a low scoring game.
GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5: Jacksonville vs. Seattle — $220 to win $200
I don’t see where the points are going to come from. Jacksonville might be as inept a team as we’ve seen in the NFL in years — 7 offensive points in two games. And Seattle comes off a huge division win versus rival and probably looks at this game as a “let’s stay healthy and just get a win” situation. Last season, Seahawks won a game versus Arizona 58-0 and I recall coach Carroll saying something to the effect he was a little embarrassed at how the final score looked. Seattle can probably name the final score here, but I don’t foresee an offensive explosion In fact, Seattle’s first two games were not particularly impressive for the offense. We’ll call this 30-6 in favor of the favorite.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (AND COMMENTS):
Dallas/Kansas City FIRST HALF OVER 23 (-115)…..LOST $345 — 17 first quarter points, followed by nothing in the second quarter, landed on 17
St. Louis/Atlanta FIRST QUARTER Over 9.5 (-115)…..WON $300 — 10-0 after first quarter
Washington/Green Bay FIRST QUARTER OVER 9.5 (-115)…..WON $400 — 10-0 after first quarter
PROP: TOTAL PASSING YARDS Eli Manning OVER 290.5 (-115)…..WON $200 — easy winner, keep betting Manning props over until Giants get a running game
Jacksonville/Oakland FIRST QUARTER OVER 7 (-125)…..PUSH — 7-0 after 15 minutes
Seattle TEAM TOTAL OVER 23.5 (-120)…..WON $300 — lucky to win this one, due to late turnovers
San Diego/Philadelphia GAME TOTAL UNDER 55…..LOST $330 — who could have predicted Eagles pass defense would take the entire game off?
San Diego TEAM TOTAL UNDER 24.5 (-115)…..LOST $575 — horrible defensive effort by Eagles
6-PT. TEASER — Baltimore -1 / Chicago -.5…..WON $400 — Ravens came through and Bears gave us a late scare
Baltimore FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL OVER 12.5 (-115)….LOST $460 — was this a poorly prepared offense of just a good defensive effort by Browns?
NY Giants FIRST HALF TEAM TOTAL OVER 12.5 (-115)…..LOST $575 <BEST BET> — three Giant scores and four times in the red zone, too bad that produced only three FGs.
NY Giants TEAM TOTAL OVER 25 (-120)…..LOST $360 — Manning interceptions killed what should have been an easy winner
Detroit / Arizona GAME OVER 48….LOST $440 — missed two-point conversion cost us at least a push, Lions put up a substandard offensive performance
PENDING NFL FUTURES WAGERS
DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600
NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575
NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800
OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: +$3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0