My Picks: NFL Divisional Round
This week I’m making one bet, and one bet only. It’s one of my largest wagers of the season.
I’m picking Carolina +1 versus San Francisco. This looks to be one of the best side wager situations all season.
See my write up below.
NOLAN DALLA: 2013 NFL SEASON RECORD
106 WINS – 81 LOSSES — 6 PUSHES
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS – 2 WINS 3 LOSSES (-$1,340)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
CURRENT BANKROLL: $19,262.
NET GAIN: + $9,262.
BEST BETS: 21–19–2
THIS WEEK’S PLAYS:
Carolina +1 vs. San Francisco (-110) — $3,300 to win $3,000 <<<BEST BET>>>
We all know the huge advantage the four rested home teams will have this week in the divisional round games versus the visitors. In three of the four games, the rested home favorite is favored by a touchdown or more. Point spreads range from 7.5 to 10. But in the SFO at CAR game, the Panthers are inexplicably 1-point underdogs.
I’m thrilled that SFO won and and covered last week. All we’ve heard in sports talk is how great this team is, how marvelous a leader and running threat Kaepernick is, and so forth. Great, keep up the hype. Talk on. Fact is, SFO was one dropped interception away from sitting at home right now. With about 3:30 left in last Sunday’s 20-20 tie game at Green Bay, the Packers defensive back dropped what would have been an interception and, at the very least, a potential winning field goal.
So now, the 49ers get to travel for the second-straight week, this time all the way to the East Coast. They should be banged up and exhausted after that zero-degree game. I can’t imagine the toll those temperatures took the players. Now, they have to get up and prepare for another tough game, versus a much tougher opponent, on relatively little rest, against arguably the hottest team in the NFL at the moment. And they’re favored?
Oh yes, CAR also dominated and destroyed SFO earlier this season, and that was at Candlestick Park.
Make no mistake, I think SFO is the best-coached team in football. Bar none. They use the players they have to win and build game plans around the strength of the team, which is defense, receivers, and the running attack. It’s not always pretty. Here’s what I see: This is the best tacking team in the NFL, and certainly one of the best defenses. One of the best running games, and the best trio of wide receivers in football. And a solid offensive line. This is the supporting cast Colin Kaepernick has around him. Talk about lucky. If he were instead playing in Tampa Bay, he’d be Cleo Lemon.
The college game antics of a running QB aren’t going to cut it on the road this week, against a defense that’s monumentally superior to Green Bay, which was missing FOUR starters last week. Keep in mind the Packers were horrid defensively (the last half of the season), yet still almost won the game. Now, SFO faces a considerably tougher challenge.
I see CAR as a team of destiny. You can see it on the sidelines and what the players are saying in interviews. None of them are intimidated by the favored visitor. I’ll take Cam Newton over Kaepernick in a heartbeat. We also have a defense that just as good, plus a rested team with home field. And, we’re getting a point.
This is as good a situation as I’ve seen all season. I’m betting it for the maximum amount.
Note: Although these will not be counted in the results, here’s what I like this week if forced to pick sides and totals.
NOR/SEA UNDER 48
INDY/NWE OVER 52.5
CAR/SFO OVER 43
SDI/DEN OVER 55
LAST WEEK’S PLAYS: 2-3 (-$1,340)
San Francisco -2.5 (-115) at Green Bay — $805 to win $700 WON
Kansas City +3 (-120) at Indianapolis — $880 to win $800 WON
Philadelphia -2.5 (-125) vs New Orleans — $750 to win $600 LOST
Cincinnati -7 vs. San Diego — $1,100 to win $1,000 <<<BEST BET>>> LOST
TEASER: Cincinnati -1 with Kansas City +9 — $990 to win $900 LOST
NOLAN DALLA: 2012 FINAL NFL SEASON RECORD
98 WINS – 87 LOSSES – 6 PUSHES —– (+ 34.6 units / 1 unit = $100)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000.
ENDING BANKROLL: $13,460.
NET GAIN: + $3,460
BEST BETS OF THE WEEK: 14-7-0