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Posted by on Aug 28, 2014 in Blog, Sports Betting | 2 comments

How Can These NFL Futures Bets Lose?

 

lvh-sportsbook

 

Looking at the upcoming season’s NFL futures bets that I’ve already put in, I ask myself a simple question.

How can these bets possibly lose money?

 

It’s like walking into a coal mine and seeing nuggets of gold.  It’s all right there in front of you.  Ready to pick up and carry away.

Before I chirp about this year’s future’s card, let’s take a little stroll down memory lane, shall we?

Last season’s results (futures):  6 wins and 3 losses — for a net profit of $2,965.

DALLAS COWBOYS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-125) —– Wagering $750 to win $600     WINNER

NEW YORK GIANTS OVER 9 WINS (-105) —– Wagering $1,050 to win $1,000    LOSER

GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 10.5 WINS (-115) —– Wagering $575 to win $500    WINNER

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS UNDER 7.5 WINS (+105) *BEST BET* —– Wagering $1,500 to win $1,575    WINNER

NEW ORLEANS OVER 9 WINS (-165) —– Wagering $1,650 to win $1,000   WINNER

ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 7.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $440 to win $400     LOSER

BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $1,100 to win $1,000     LOSER

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 8.5 WINS (-110) —– Wagering $880 to win $800   WINNER

OAKLAND RAIDERS UNDER 5.5 (-180) — Wagering $1,800 to win $1,000    WINNER

The main concern about betting NFL futures at this point is most of the good numbers are now gone.  The sharps hammered the lines into proper position, adjusting the market to the actual values of various teams and propositions.  The time to bet NFL futures was a few months ago when the soft numbers came out, offering some extraordinary value to those with a keen eye.

I arrived somewhat late to the party.  With my work in poker (summer is my busiest time with the WSOP and the new television show, “Poker Night in America”) I didn’t get the best numbers.  But I still got money down before the market made some major shifts.

Here’s what I have so far (six wagers):

DETROIT LIONS UNDER 8.5 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000

Lions seem loaded on paper (especially the offense), but typically underachieve on the field.  One of the worst front offices in sports and now one of the most baffling head coaching hires in quite some time with Jim Caldwell now in charge on the sidelines.  I don’t see this as a 9-7 or better team, especially given that no upgrades were made to this team in the off-season.  Last year, this club went 7-9 and now they must win TWO MORE games to go OVER?  QB Stafford has all the tools to be an elite QB, but hasn’t yet taken that step, and often makes terrible decisions with the game on the line.  A new offensive scheme takes time, which can’t bode well for expectations.  Detroit will be lucky to go 3-3 within the division that includes two bona fide playoff contenders, plus the improving Vikings.  That means they will need to go 6-4 in the rest of their games that includes road games at Carolina, Atlanta (London), Arizona, and New England.  They also get NY Giants and New Orleans, at home.  At best, this is an 8-8 team.  With unfulfilled talent, a new head coach, and a tougher than average schedule .500 seems to be a best-case scenario.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 6 WINS (-130) — Wagering $1,300 to win $1,000

The converse of the anti-Lions wager is being bullish on division rival Minnesota, which I think has a decent chance to win 8 games.  New coach Mike Zimmer should provide a spark to the defense that gave up huge numbers last season.  Vikings also return with apparently a healthy Adrian Peterson, indisputably the NFL’s best running back (3,500 yards rushing the past two seasons).  QB Cassel will have Norv Turner calling the plays as OC.  While Turner rightfully gets criticized for a less than stellar head coaching record, he’s probably a good fit for this offense and will run a more straightforward old-style game plan that won’t put all the pressure on the QB.  I also view the Vikings move outdoors this season, the first time in 30 years Vikings home games will be played in the cold, as something that could turn into an advantage, this assuming the Vikings embrace that “run the ball” and “win with defense” approach.  It would take a 5-11 or worse record to lose this wager.  I’ll fade that and hope for a 7-9 season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS UNDER 8 WINS (-135) — Wagering $1,350 to win $1,000

Kansas City started the season 9-0 last year and was the surprise team in the AFC, then folded up like a cheap suitcase.  They didn’t beat a team with a winning record, and now play a much tougher schedule in 2014.  This is a brutal lineup of opponents which includes — Denver (twice), San Diego (twice), New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona, and Pittsburgh.  Even the other games don’t look easy — at Buffalo, at Miami, etc.  Other than Oakland, Chiefs aren’t likely to be big favorites against anyone this season.  Recent injuries severely worsen the situation in Kansas City, with two of the starting five offensive linemen now out of the season.  Clearly the third best team in the division, which is more likely to go under 8 wins than over 8 wins given the strength of schedule and injury troubles.  In three games, and 16 possessions, starting KC offensive unit has yet to produce a touchdown. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 7 WINS (-150) — Wagering $1,500 to win $1,000  <<<BEST BET>>> 

The Browns went 5-11-1 last season, come in with a new head coach, and now for reasons totally foreign to me, they are projected to pick up 1.5 more games in the win column?  Based on what?  Cleveland has their third head coach in three seasons, a bench warming QB as the starter, a distraction with Manziel (who will probably start after the Browns lose their first four games), and not much else.  Browns open with at Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New Orleans, and at Tennessee before the bye week.  They could be 0-4 by then.  To lose this wager, Cleveland has to win half their games in a division where they are clearly the fourth best team at the start of the season.  Looks like a BEST BET wager, even with the high vig price.

DALLAS COWBOYS TO MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-250) — Wagering $1,250 to win $500

Lots of movement on Dallas, which was initially 8.5 on wins, and now at 7 to 7.5 in most places.  Rather than face the .500 mark, I’m willing to lay extra juice that Dallas won’t make the playoffs this season, which probably requires them to win the NFC East as the only track to get in (wild cards will be locked up in NFC West and probably the NFC North).  But Dallas could be the worst team in this division, with Philadelphia expected as the favorite, NY Giants certainly primed to bounce back after the injury-riddled season of 2013, and Washington also potentially a team with a winning record.  This is the worst Cowboys defense in franchise history, which gave up record numbers of yardage and points, and which didn’t improve in the offseason (but did lose the key player in pre-season due to injury — out for the season).  QB Romo is coming off back surgery.  The running game is non-existent.  The offensive line looks vulnerable.  Finally, there’s nothing to indicate Jerry Jones coaching puppet Jason Garrett is capable of shedding all these challenges and taking his team to the playoffs, which would be a first for him after three straight 8-8 season, with much better talent.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220) — Wagering $2,200 to win $1,000   <<<BEST BET>>>

Aside from the suspension year, all head coach Sean Payton does is win games — 13, 11, 13, 11 wins in each of the past four seasons where he’s been on the sidelines.  Now, he arguably has his best team ever in New Orleans, with a loaded offense and a much improved defense under DC Ryan.  Saints ran the table, going 8-0 at home last year.  Of course, there are concerns about the Saints as a viable road team.  But this is the NFL’s best home field advantage, apart from Seattle.  New Orleans should reach 10 wins easily, and are a virtual lock to make the playoffs barring a slew of injuries.  Saints clearly the best team in a mediocre division.  Similar odds are posted on Saints to win the NFC South, but the better play here is to bet them to make the playoffs in case one of the other rivals is a surprise, and New Orleans backs into the post season as a wild card.

TAG:  NFL futures betting

2 Comments

  1. I notice that all your bets (so far) are chalk favorites (some heavy.) Won’t you need to go 5-out-of-6 to come out ahead? I’ve found that, when betting a collection of chalk favorites (in baseball) a small loss is more probable than a gain even when the EV is positive on each bet!

  2. Effin Brutal. Yahoooooohooohooooo!

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